NFL Week 10

by StockJockey

Saturday, November 08, 2008 - 5:54 pm

Kevin’s picks are far ahead of the pro handicappers this year, which might take his mind of the day job, working for a European bank with a single digit stock. Actually it has been trading with a ten-handle, and I am long that POS again. But forget about stocks for the moment, and check out his wisdom at Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com

A mid-season update was promised at the end of Q1. Through week 9, I am 28-16-1 (63.6%) against the spread (ATS). Let’s say I worked for Sportsline, I would have outperformed all of their 6 “experts” (their word not mine). Their best is a solid 55.8% ATS on the season.

Here are my week 10 picks:

San Diego Chargers -15.5 over Chiefs: The Chargers are arguably the biggest disappointment of the 2008 season. At 3-5, they trail the Denver Broncos by 1 1/2 games in the AFC West. Considering they play the Steelers, the Colts and the Falcons in the weeks ahead, beating the Chiefs is a must. The spread is huge, but don’t be fooled. There were 5 games decided by more than 15 1/2 points in week 9 alone. The Chargers will look like the real contenders that many thought they were in the pre-season and blow out the Chiefs this week. The question (to which I do not have the answer...yet) is will they look like a real contender when they face a quality opponent in the Steelers next week.

Carolina Panthers -9.5 over Raiders: 16-2. That’s NOT a score prediction. That is how many players are on the Raiders injury report vs the Panthers’ report. Not only are the Raiders bad, but they are banged up. And they just released their $70+ million CB, whether or not he’s the “flashiest, burnt-up corner in the history of the game” like Warren Sapp says. This dysfunctional team does one thing well - lose. They won’t disappoint this week either.

New York Jets -9 over Rams: It’s going to be a rough week for professional (umm...I use that term loosely) football for the Missouri-based teams. (The good news is the Mizzou Tigers should beat Kansas State.) Kenneth Darby is going to start at RB for the Rams with Steven Jackson out. Kenneth Darby was on the Falcons practice squad just 3 weeks ago. Now he faces All-World (not a reference to his 349 pounds) run-stopper Kris Jenkins and the fourth-best rush defense (76 ypg) in the NFL. On the flip side, the Rams rush defense is the 4th-worst in the league (155.5 ypg).

Tennessee Titans -3 over Bears: The NFL is a league where the “on any given Sunday” principle usually applies. That doesn’t bode well for a team remaining unbeaten this far into the season. I usually love taking a home underdog. So I should take the Bears, right? Like Lee Corso says, “not so fast, my friend.” With the Bears sending out Rex Grossman, I have no confidence in the Bears. In fact, the Tennessee Titans’ defense leads the NFL in scoring (12.9 ppg) and interceptions (13). Considering Grossman’s affinity for not scoring points and for making mistakes, this seems like a match made in Heaven.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 over Lions: 4 straight blowouts. Then 4 straight single-digit losses. We’re seeing improvement in Motown, right? And last week the Jaguars lost to the then-winless Cincinnati Bengals. But in comes new Lions QB Daunte Culpepper, who will get the start Sunday. After head coach Jack Del Rio and captain Mike Peterson went at it this week, I would expect the Jaguars to come out with a renewed vigor. They are banged up on the O/D lines, but they are playing the Lions after all. The Lions have the 2nd-worst rushing defense (161.8 ypg) and the 2nd-worst rushing offense (72.0 ypg) in the NFL.

Enjoy the games (even the Lions and Raiders games, which will be blacked out in local markets) this week!