NFL Week 11

by StockJockey

Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 1:36 am

Do you remember Jimmy the Greek?

He was a hack compared to Kevin, who was on fire again last week. Fade him at you own risk!

Check out his site, or else.....Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com

Week 10 was a good week: 4-1 against the spread (ATS) to improve to 32-17-1 on the season. I’m feeling good about week 11 picks as well. Here they are:

Arizona Cardinals -3 over Seahawks: A lot has been made of the Cardinals’ health on offense, especially the passing game. Hasselbeck, who will start in this game, has played only 4 games and what Seahawks WR hasn’t been hurt this season? But the bigger problem that directly relates to this game is the Seahawks inability to stop the pass. The Seahawks are ranked 31st in the NFL in passing ypg (252.2). They have given up 14 passing TDs and only intercepted 4 passes. Kurt Warner, a legitimate MVP candidate, has avoided mistakes and the Cardinals have arguably the best WR tandem (and trio) in the NFL with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (and Steve Breaston).

Philadelphia Eagles -9 over Bengals: The Cincinnati Bengals are on their longest (and only) winning streak of the year - 1 game. The Bungles have a real shot at beating their own franchise record for ineptitude when they won 2 games in 2002. I expect Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb and crew to light up the Bengals defense, which has given up nearly twice as many points as their offense has scored. Here are some more numbers that support the Eagles: 5-1 against the spread (ATS) as favorite of 3.5-9.5 points this year, 14-2 ATS off a division game in past 3 years and 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival in past 3 years.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 over Titans: Call me crazy (I’ve definitely been called worse) for picking against the Titans, who are a perfect 9-0 on the season. Albert Haynesworth is as good as it gets on the D-Line. The Titans can run the ball with Thunder (LenDale White) and Lightning (Chris Johnson). And when a defense forces them to pass (a la the Bears last week), they showed they can pass the ball with Kerry Collins, who is 14th all-time in passing yards. However, the Jags were expected to challenge the Colts for the division - not the Titans. Jack Del Rio has used Mike Peterson as an example to get the team to focus on the details. The team looked reinvigorated against the Lions last week. With a sense of urgency, I expect the Jags to win this one outright. Worst-case scenario, they should keep it close and give you a shot to cover.

New York Giants -7 over Ravens: The NY Giants Kareem McKenzie was busted for DUI on Thursday, but will start Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens have one of the toughest defenses (especially their front seven) in the league. In fact, the Ravens have the #1-rated rushing defense in the NFL allowing only 65.4 rushing ypg and 1 TD in 9 games. On the other hand, the Giants lead the NFL in rushing offense (168.9 ypg) and have scored 12 rushing TDs. These 2 teams are 1-2 in time of possession and both teams will look to control the clock. The Ravens aren’t as tough on the road as they are at home. Since 2005, they are 20-8 at home and 10-19 on the road. Home-field advantage and a better passing game gives the edge to the Giants.

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Rams: Jim Haslett started his “interim” Rams coaching career strong winning his first 2 games against tough NFC East opponents. But he had the versatile Steven Jackson both of those weeks. Since then Jackson has missed 2 of 3 games and only had 7 carries in the game he did play. They have lost by a combined 81-16 in their previous 2 games. Steven Jackson has been ruled out against the Niners so I expect a similar outcome for the Rams. So, we’ll have to wait at least a week before Mike Singletary moons his players (again) when the Niners host Da Bears.