NFL Week 16

Need to escape the relatives? Go to the bar and watch these game. Kevin from Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com is back with his week 16 picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (over San Diego Chargers): The Bucs have stumbled the past 2 weeks on the road against the Panthers and Falcons.  In fact, their strength (rushing defense, which allowed only 1 rushing TD in the first 12 games of the season) has become their biggest liability.  The Bucs allowed 3 100-yard rushers in those 2 games and 5 rushing TDs.  The Panthers rushed for 299 yards and the Falcons for 175 yards against the Bucs.  So, why am I picking them?  They (as well as the rest of the NFC South) are a different team at home than they are on the road.  The Bucs are 6-0 (NFC South teams are 26-2) at home on the season.  Home-field advantage will help the Bucs get back into a groove as the hugely disappointing San Diego Chargers lose another one.

New York Jets -4 (over Seattle Seahawks): Despite Brett Favre’s (questioning his) arm strength, the Jets need to get back to basics.  In the past 6 weeks, the Jets have won all 4 games where Thomas Jones had 20+ carries and lost both games where he didn’t.  Favre helps keep opposing defenses honest and the Seahawks have the league’s worst pass defense allowing 260.9 ypg.  They have also allowed 21 passing TDs while picking off only 6 passes.  The Jets have plenty of motivation to win this game as they are the division winner if they win out.

New York Giants -3 (over Carolina Panthers): See Bucs/Chargers game.  The NFC South teams are 26-2 at home.  The Panthers are 8-0 at home.  But this game will be played on the road, where they are 3-3.  They are playing the defending Super Bowl Champs, who also happen to be the current Vegas favorite to win it again.  The Giants will get Brandon Jacobs, who has 12 rushing TDs in 12 games, back.  There is no way that I can envision the Giants losing 3 straight, especially playing at home in such a meaningful game with their best player (Jacobs) back.

Miami Dolphins -4 (over Kansas City Chiefs): If the Miami Dolphins win out, they win the AFC East.  (Their week 17 matchup is against the Jets.) The Dolphins are winning with solid defense (8th in the league) and a solid running game (12th in the league).  Chad Pennington may not have the arm strength of Brett Favre, but he is a heady player that limits mistakes.  In the Dolphins 14 games, Pennington has thrown 6 INTs and no more than 1 in any game.  In fact, they are 2-4 in the 6 games where Pennington has thrown a pick.  They are 7-1 in the games where he has played mistake-free.  The Chiefs have the 3rd-worst passing defense (242 ypg), the 3rd-worst rushing defense (155.1 ypg) and the league’s worst overall defense (397.1 ypg).

Buffalo Bills +6.5 (over Denver Broncos): The Bills got off to a great start (5-1) and have looked horrible since (1-7).  But the Bills can rush the ball well and a questionable play call led them to a 31-27 loss vs the Jets last week.  I would expect the Bills to not make the same mistake twice.  Marshawn Lynch will get a boatload of carries as the Bills face the 6th-worst rushing defense in the league.  As horribly as the Bills have played, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills don’t cover.  But this is my hunch play of the week and I expect the Bills to keep this game close and at a minimum cover.

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