NFL Week 2

Packers (-3) over Lions: This game has trap written all over it, but I can’t resist. In fact, I consider this to be the “lock” of the week (another reason why it might be a trap). But here’s how I look at it - what has changed on the Packers from 2007 to 2008? Aside from Brett Favre, there’s not much. The Packers still have their core of solid defensive players, talented skill players, etc.  Although I don’t expect the Packers to repeat their 13-3 performance, this team is good. Really good. Despite what Jon Kitna might tell you, the Lions are not. Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams are one of the NFL’s top WR tandems and I predict that Calvin Johnson will be the best WR in the NFL by end of the 2009 season.  But it’s week 2 in the 2008 season.  After Michael “The Burner” Turner scorched the Lions run defense for 220, I expect Ryan Grant to put up gaudy numbers. This one will be over at halftime.

Titans (+1) over Bengals: There is one thing the Bengals can’t do well (stop the run) that the Titans can (run). I’m surprised by this line. Even though Vince Young is out, he was being booed in Nashville by Titan fans before he got hurt. And the Titans won over a physical Jaguars team. So, we’ll see how much the loss of #10 hurts the Titans. Chris Johnson and LenDale White provide a solid 1-2 punch that will knock out these lightweights from the Queen City.  How long will we have to wait for the “Ocho Stinko” jerseys if #85 goes another game without a reception?  Look for the Titans to smash the Bengals in the mouth and for the Bengals to leave more banged up than they already are. Plus, the Titans are 11-5 in last 16 games against-the-spread (ATS).

Cardinals (-6) over Dolphins: I saw an interesting stat involving “grass” and couldn’t resist with Ricky Williams in the game. The Dolphins are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games on grass while the Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 games on grass. The Arizona Cardinals are my pick to win the NFC West, which isn’t saying much, but the Cards have a great offense with Kurt Warner at the helm. Look for Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower to have good games against a run defense that was 32nd in the NFL in 2007.

Patriots (+1) over Jets: What does a point spread represent?  Most people incorrectly think that it’s the oddsmaker’s guess at what the difference in the game’s score will be.  It’s close but not exactly correct.  Oddsmakers create point spreads so that an equal # of dollars will be bet on each team.  Since the casino/sportsbook requires you to put up more than you actually win, if an equal dollar amount is bet on both teams, the sportsbook is guaranteed to make money.  Why am I mentioning this here?  Well, Tom Brady is the NFL’s reigning MVP, but how many points is he really worth?  If Brady weren’t injured, the Pats would easily be favored by a TD.  Now, they are 1-point underdogs.  While Matt Cassel hasn’t started a football game since high school in 1999, I don’t feel that Brady or any individual player is worth 8+ points.  Due to his popularity, however, the oddsmakers have over-corrected in my view.  I think the spread should have been the Patriots as 2-point favorites.  Take the Pats and party like it’s 1999…