NFL Week 4

Kevin blew two games last week after starting the season perfect-Go check out his site Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com.....

Well, my hopes of finishing 2008 with a perfect 85-0 record against the spread (ATS) have been destroyed after a 3-2 showing in week 3.  However, 13-2 (87%) ATS through 3 weeks ain’t too shabby.  My unstated goal was to finish the season north of 60%.  With that being said, let’s get to this week’s picks:

Washington Redskins (+11) over Dallas Cowboys: As a Cowboys fan, I try to avoid picking games involving the ‘Boys. However this line is TOO big even if the game is in Dallas and Jason Taylor is out. The Redskins have won 3 out of the last 4 straight-up (SU). While I expect/hope the Cowboys improve to 4-0, this will be a hard-fought victory for America’s Team.  In fact, the Redskins are ranked #8 in this week’s EDSFootball.com Domination Index, which ranks teams on statistical differentials.  These 2 teams always play each other tough and Santana Moss seems to have the Cowboys’ number.  Game Prediction: Cowboys 27, Redskins 24

Green Bay Packers (+1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Packers will be without Al Harris, who will miss much less time than initially feared, but even without Harris it’s unlikely that Brian Griese and the Bucs will attempt 67 passes again this week. I expect Ryan Grant and the Packers to run the football better this week.  The Packers defense is solid against the run as well and are 2nd in the NFL in turnover differential (+4).  The Packers, who are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games, will win this game outright.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over Oakland Raiders: Lane Kiffin has managed to keep his job one more week, but my guess is this will be his last week as Raiders coach. (The Raiders have a bye next week so if Al Davis is going to pull the plug, Monday or Tuesday would be the day.) The Chargers are 3 points, a few seconds and a blown call away from being a perfect 3-0 this year. Despite the Chargers scoring 48 points on the Jets last week, LT is off to another of his typical slow starts. But last year, the Raiders allowed the 2nd-most rushing ypg. I expect this week to be the week that LT has a monster week as LT and the Chargers run away with this one.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Tennessee Titans: The Titans are off to a perfect start and they seem to be better with Kerry Collins than with Vince Young.  These 2 teams remind me a lot of each other.  Both teams have solid offensive and defensive lines and running games.  And although they both have strong running games, their passing attacks aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire.  This game will be a battle in the trenches that could be a low scoring, 13-12 type of contest.  I expect the Vikings to win this game outright, but I’ll take the points.

Denver Broncos (-10) over Kansas City Chiefs: Historically, the Chiefs have been tough to beat at Arrowhead.  Arrowhead is one of the best atmospheres in football.  The Denver Broncos come into this game as the highest-scoring team in league averaging 38.0 ppg.  On the other hand, the Chiefs are averaging 10.7 ppg (only St. Louis and Cleveland are worse).  The Cutler-Marshall combination is as good as any in the league.  In fact, Brandon Marshall is on pace to catch 180 passes in 15 games (after being suspended week 1).  I expect this game to be a one-sided shootout - Broncos 35, Chiefs 17.

Enjoy the games this weekend!

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