NFL Week 5

by StockJockey

Sunday, October 05, 2008 - 1:21 pm

Kevin has cooled off, but he is ahead of the pack. Lets see if he can keep it going-SJ

Picking games against the spread (ATS) is like playing golf. While you want to score better than the rest of your foursome, it’s more important to improve your own game. Well, after my first under-.500 week of the season (2-3 last week), I thought I’d do a search and see how the rest of my “foursome” is doing through the first quarter of the season.

Through week 4, I’m 15-5 (75%). At CBS Sportsline, the best of their 6 contributors is 60% on the year. At USA Today, the best of their 8 contributors is 66.7%. And compared to ESPN’s The Sports Guy (Bill Simmons) it’s not even close. Simmons is 23-23-1 (50%) on the season.

After week 8, I’ll provide a 2nd-quarter update, but here are my week 5 picks:

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Houston Texans: The good news is the Texans schedule gets easier. The bad news is it starts next week when they play Miami, Detroit and Cincinnati. This week, however, they play the Indianapolis Colts, who have won 11 of the past 12 games head-to-head vs Houston. Peyton Manning is 24th in the NFL in QB Rating and has thrown more INTs than TDs. Although the Texans’ strength is their pass rush, the Colts should have Jeff Saturday and Tony Ugoh back on the line. Also, Manning will have one of his favorite targets back in Dallas Clark. It’s hard to envision the Colts starting 2008 with a 1-3 record and the Colts offense to continue struggling.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) over Tennessee Titans: These two teams have stingy defenses. The Titans are giving up the fewest points (11.5 ppg) and the Ravens are giving up the fewest yards (186.7 ypg) so far this season. And both teams are in the top quarter of the league in offensive rushing ypg. While the Ravens have been good only 1 of the 3 past seasons, the Ravens have been tough to beat at home. Even in their 2 down years (2005 and 2007), the Ravens were 10-6 at home and 1-15 on the road. I don’t see the Titans coming to M&T and pushing around the Ravens in their house. Take the Ravens and the points.

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins: In the Dolphins upset over the Patriots, Ronnie Brown ran the ball while Joey Porter ran his mouth. Last week LaDainian Tomlinson had his first 100-yard rushing game of the year, but it still feels like he has yet to get going. But the Chargers still lead the NFL in scoring (34.5 ppg) as Philip Rivers is 2nd in the NFL in QB Rating and TD passes. Barring another 5-TD performance by Brown, I see the Chargers easily winning this one by a TD. Also, the Dolphins are 4-12 against the spread (ATS) in last 16 home games.

New York Giants (-7) over Seattle Seahawks: The New York Giants are #1 in the EDSFootball.com Domination Index through week 4. Seattle has really struggled so far this season without healthy WRs. Bobby Engram and Deion Branch return for Seattle this week, but will it be enough? Perhaps confusing to the Seahawks, who couldn’t keep a WR healthy, the Giants have suspended Plaxico Burress for this week’s game. Here’s an interesting stat: the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in last 7 October games and the Giants are 7-1 ATS in October games. To make matters worse, the Seahawks typically struggle after bye weeks. They are 5-15 ATS after a bye since 1992.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) over New Orleans Saints: These teams have different strengths. Minnesota can run the ball well and New Orleans can pass the ball well. The Vikings get their starting LT Bryant McKinnie back after he served a 4-game suspension. The New Orleans Saints continue to be plagued by injuries on both sides of the ball and the latest is the potential loss of DT Sedrick Ellis, their first-round pick, who left practice today to get his knee examined. It will already be difficult to stop AP with Ellis. Without him, it will be nearly impossible. Take the Vikings and the points.

Enjoy the games!