NFL Week 6

by StockJockey

Sunday, October 12, 2008 - 2:19 pm

Oops a little late getting these up..I am trying to stay away from my computer given the reddish glow it emits day after day…

Kevin has been pretty hot...lets see if he can keep it going.

As always, visit him at Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com

Last week, I was 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) to maintain my 75% winning (or covering) percentage on the season with an overall record of 18-6-1. If only I invested my money in my picks instead of…

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 over Denver Broncos: I expect the Jaguars to re-establish their running game this week against a defense that struggles to stop the run. The Broncos average 415 ypg of offense, ranking them second in the NFL. Although Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are the main cogs of the Broncos offense, they will be missing 2 key components (Tony Scheffler and Selvin Young) this week. This game will be close and the trends favor the Jags. The Jags are 12-5 ATS as underdogs in the past 3 years while the Broncos are 5-14 ATS at home in the past 3 years and 11-26 ATS overall.

Minnesota Vikings -13 over Detroit Lions: Although the Vikings are only 1 game out of first in the NFC North, they are not playing like the Super Bowl contender I thought they’d be. While we’re on the topic of disappointment, Jon Kitna mentioned he would be disappointed if the Lions didn’t win 10 games this year. As the least dominant team according to the latest EDSFootball.com Domination Index, the Lions look unlikely to win even 1 game despite Roy Williams saying the Lions have a “realistic chance” of making the playoffs. Did Webster’s change the definition of “realistic chance” without telling me? The Lions are 3-10 ATS vs division opponents and 4-14 in road games over the past 3 years. And they have virtually 0% chance of stopping Adrian Peterson, who will live up his “All Day” nickname.

Indianapolis Colts -4 over Baltimore Ravens: The Indianapolis Colts, who I picked to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, have started the Lucas Oil Stadium era 0-2. Will they really start 0-3 at home? Granted, they won (and covered) based partly on luck vs Houston (see: Super Man Sage Rosenfels impression). And without Bob Sanders (again), the Colts are struggling to stop the run (again), which is what the Ravens one-dimensional offense does well. That being said, it’s sometimes luck (like last week) that kickstarts an offense that is as potent as the Colts offense. If the Colts can score early, the Ravens and their rookie QB Joe Flacco will struggle to play catch up. In the past 3 seasons, the Ravens are 5-12 ATS on the road while the Colts are 12-9 ATS at home.

Houston Texans -3 over Miami Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins have put together a winning streak that has doubled all of their wins (or should I say win since it was singular) in 2007. But are they good enough to go 3-2? I think Parcells and Sparano will change the culture and attitude in Miami. But they are still a year or two away. With the exception of the last 4 minutes of last week’s colossal collapse, the Houston Texans played great football last week. The Houston Texans have only lost to quality opponents: Steelers, Titans, Jaguars and Colts. The Texans are much better than their 0-4 record indicates and they begin a 3-game stretch against weak opponents (Miami, Detroit and Cincinnati).

New Orleans Saints -7 over Oakland Raiders: Sometimes change is good. The Raiders’ owner Al Davis fired head coach Lane Kiffin and replaced him with the relatively unknown Tom Cable. However, Lane Kiffin wasn’t the Raiders problem; Al Davis was (and still is). But it’s tough to fire the owner. The New Orleans Saints lead the NFL in passing yards/game and they might have their best WR (Marques Colston) back this week. I expect the Saints to score early and take a big league, which hurts the one-dimensional Raiders offense. The Raiders will be forced to play in catch-up mode and this game will be over by halftime.