NFL Week 7

I had given up on Kevin getting his picks in this week, given the stock of his employer imploded last week.

But an emergency bailout by European knuckheads have saved the day...and I get a good laugh given I sold the stock 270% higher.

Go check his site out..it beats reading the Wall Street Journal in an effort to pick a winning long.

Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com

Baltimore Ravens +3 (over Miami Dolphins): The Miami Dolphins are 3 seconds away from putting together a 3-game winning streak. Ronnie Brown has scored in the past 4 games and has 7 rushing TDs during that span. But now the ‘Fins play the stingy Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (66.2 ypg). The Ravens have lost their last 3 games but to top AFC teams (Steelers, Titans and Colts). With the exception of last week’s blowout, the Ravens have played 4 solid games: 2 wins and 2 3-point losses to Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Although I expect the Ravens to win this game straight-up, I think the worst-case scenario is they keep it close and give the Ravens a chance to cover.

New York Jets -3 (over Oakland Raiders): The New York Jets are a good not great football team, but Brett Favre and the offense are starting to gel. Favre turned the ball over twice last week, but completed his highest percentage of passes last week (over 75%). He has 10 passing TDs in the past 3 weeks. The Oakland Raiders are a franchise in disarray (although disarray might be too weak of a word). In their last 11 games with spreads of 3 points or less, the Raiders are 2-9 against the spread (ATS). More specifically, they are 3-12 ATS as home underdogs when receiving 3 points or less since 1992. And in their last 18 home games, they are 5-13 ATS.

New England Patriots -3 (over Denver Broncos): In sticking with my “AFC East 3-point favorite”, are you ready for some (Monday Night) football? The Broncos are terrible. When I say terrible, I mean against the spread. On the season, they are 1-5 ATS. In the last 3 years, they are 11-27 ATS. The Patriots aren’t as bad as we saw last week in San Diego. I think if the Pats weren’t coming off such a lopsided loss, the spread would probably be closer to 7 points. I can’t see Belichick not having this team prepared to bounce back. Take the Pats and give the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 (over Pittsburgh Steelers): Make no mistake about it.  The Bengals are the Bungles again and are not going to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday.  However, divisional rivalry games very seldomly should have the road team being a (near) double-digit point favorite over the home team.  And the Steelers will likely be playing without Fast Willie Parker.  The Steelers are 6-8 ATS vs division opponents in the past 3 seasons.

Dallas Cowboys -7 (over St. Louis Rams): Whether or not Tony Romo plays, the Cowboys shouldn’t need him Sunday.  Although the Rams are coming off a surprising 2-point upset over the Washington Redskins, one game doesn’t make a trend.  The Rams were the worst team in the NFL for the first 5 weeks of the season.  The Cowboys have struggled a little lately, but there is no denying that are a talented bunch.  The Rams are 3-10 ATS over the past 3 seasons when facing an opponent with a winning record.  During that span, the Rams are also 6-12 ATS at home and 9-16 ATS as an underdog.  All signs point to Big D winning big in St. Louis.

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