NFL Week 8

by StockJockey

Saturday, October 25, 2008 - 7:33 pm

Kevin has cooled off after a hot start but is now 23-11-1 against the spread (ATS) this season after going 2-3 last weekend.

But he is more confident with his picks in week 8 and here they are.

As always check out his site Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (over Oakland Raiders): Since 2006, the Baltimore Ravens are 13-6 at home and the Oakland Raiders are 3-16 on the road. Moreover, when an Eastern timezone team hosts a Pacific timezone team for a 1 p.m. game, they are 10-0 straight-up this season. The Raiders/Ravens game has a 1 p.m. kickoff. The Raiders offense is one-dimensional. Although they run the ball well, the Ravens stop the run even better. The Ravens are allowing the league’s lowest average of only 67.2 rushing yards/game. I expect the Ravens defense to frustrate the Raiders offense and cause several turnovers.

Buffalo Bills -1.5 (over Miami Dolphins): When playing an opponent with a losing record, the Buffalo Bills are 11-1 ATS. Also, they are 12-3 ATS in games that have spreads of 3 points or less. So far, this season the only game the Bills lost is when JP Losman came in after Trent Edwards was knocked out of the game in Arizona. On the season, Edwards is 4th in the league with a QB Rating of 98.8 and has only thrown 2 INTs in 152 pass attempts. The Bills don’t turn the ball over and play solid defense. Take the Bills and gave the points.

Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (over Tampa Bay Buccaneers): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most dominant team in the NFL according to the EDSFootball.com Domination Index when strength of schedule is included. But the Bucs are 1-2 on the road losing to 2 offensive teams with weak defenses (Saints/Broncos). While Tony Romo is out, the Cowboys offense still features Marion Barber, Jason Witten, Terrell Owens and a massive O-Line. Even though the Bucs are the only team in the NFL to not allow a rushing TD in 2008, the Cowboys need to establish a ground attack early. On the defensive side of the ball, Wade Phillips will assume play-calling responsibilities and the Cowboys will get back to basics. With their backs against the wall, I expect the Cowboys to play better, more-focused football at home vs the Bucs.

Washington Redskins -7.5 (over Detroit Lions): The Detroit Lions are by far the worst team (or least dominant according to my weekly Domination Index) in the NFL. In the same index, the Washington Redskins are 2nd overall. The Detroit Lions have the 2nd worst rush defense (167.5 yards allowed per game) and the 2nd-worst pass defense (251.2 yards allowed per game). That kind of consistency has helped them become the league’s worst overall defense allowing 418.7 yards/game. Also, nobody allows more points per game than the Lions (31.2 ppg). The Redskins should score and score often on the Lions Swiss-cheese defense.

Atlanta Falcons +9 (over Philadelphia Eagles): The Philadelphia Eagles will certainly blitz rookie QB Matt Ryan often. And the Eagles have a healthy Brian Westbrook and Kevin Curtis back in the lineup. While I think the Eagles will win this game, I think the Falcons keep the game closer than Vegas expects. Matt Ryan has only thrown an INT for every 53 pass attempts, which is impressive as a rookie starter. Also, Michael Turner has run effectively averaging nearly 100 yards/game (597 yards in 6 games). Roddy White has continued his progression into the upper-echelon of receivers with 453 receiving yards in the past 4 games. Take the Falcons and the points.

Enjoy the games this weekend!