NFL Week 9

by StockJockey

Saturday, November 01, 2008 - 4:12 pm

Kevin has managed to keep it going.... he was 3-2 last week and his overall record through 8 weeks is 26-13-1 (66.7%) against the spread (ATS). Here are his week 9 picks, don’t forget to go to Eatdrinksleepfootball.com

And if you are playing fantasy be sure to check out his cheat sheet at TheTipDrill to help set your starting lineup. There is even a nice NCAA page...Enjoy the games this weekend!

Packers +4.5 over Titans: The Tennessee Titans are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL and they are good. They are better than I thought they would be before the season started. But in a league with parity ("any given Sunday"), they are due to lose. It’s tough to remain perfect. The Packers’ rush defense has surprised me - 141.9 yards/game. However, they’ve allowed only 73 yards last week and 64 yards the week before. While they won’t hold the Titans to that few, the Titans won’t run all over the Packers the way they have running over opponents (145.0 ypg) either. In the past 3 years, the Packers are 14-5 against the spread (ATS) on the road.

Cowboys +9 over Giants: Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants weren’t the pre-season NFC consensus choice. The Cowboys were. Now heading into their week 9 matchup, the Cowboys are 9-point underdogs. All stats point to the Giants covering - the Giants are 10-4 ATS vs division opponents and 22-9 ATS vs conference opponents in past 3 years. The Cowboys on the other hand are 4-10 ATS vs division opponents in the same span. However, I feel 9 points is an over-correction and this game (like most NFC East division battles) will be closer than the Vegas oddsmakers believe. Take the Cowboys and the points.

Bills -5.5 over Jets: It’s a good week to be a Buffalo Bills DB. After only picking off 4 passes in 7 games, the gunslingin’ Brett Favre rides into town. Not only is he tied for the league-lead in INTs with the 49ers benched QB J.T. O’Sullivan, he’s thrown 8 of his 11 INTs in the past 3 weeks against the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs. This is a huge game for the Bills, who are tied for first with the Pats, and I expect the crowd will be rowdy in support of the league’s only “real NY” team. The Bills are solid against the run and they normally play mistake-free. Turnovers and the crowd will be more than a TD-difference in this game.

Browns -1.5 over Ravens: The Cleveland Browns came into the season with over-hyped expectations. Some predicted they would overtake the Steelers in the AFC North. Well, after their horrible 0-3 start, the Browns are playing good football. They are 3-1 in their last 4 games - only loss was on the road to the Redskins by 3 points. The Ravens have the best rushing defense in the league and a solid rushing offense. But Chris McAllister is out and the Browns’ passing attack is looking better. The Ravens also are a much better home (3-1) than road (1-2) team. Take the Browns at home here.

Eagles -7 over Seahawks: The Eagles are putting up 100 yards more of offense than the Seahawks this year. The Seahawks are still banged up - no Matt Hasselbeck, but the Eagles are becoming healthier on offense - second straight week with Brian Westbrook back in the lineup. In fact, the Seahawks are 31st in the league in total offense and 32nd (of 32) in passing offense. It’s going to be a long day for Seneca Wallace as the Eagles apply pressure all day. It will seem like the Eagles defense has more than 11 defenders on the field. This one could be a laugher.

If you play fantasy football, be sure to check out my weekly average rankings by position at TheTipDrill.com to help set your starting lineup. Enjoy the games this weekend!