NFL Week One

The first few weeks of the season are tough to pick’em but Kevin from Eat drink and sleep football is back with his thoughts...which is more exciting than parsing the GSE mess.

New York Jets (-3) over Miami Dolphins: Imagine the reaction your friends would have given you in May if you said the NFL season would kick off with Brett Favre as QB of the Jets and Chad Pennington as QB of the Dolphins.  The Dolphins, who flirted with imperfection in 2007, will win more than 1 game in 2008.  Actually, the Dolphins lost 6 games by only 3 points so they weren’t really as bad as a one-win team.  However, this won’t be one of the games they win in 2008.  Plus the Dolphins’ best 2007 player, Jason Taylor, played the other New York team last night.  Ronnie Brown is recovering from an ACL (and thumb) injury and are we really putting stock in Ricky Williams’ revival?  I think Ricky Williams is a good fantasy football sleeper pick, but I need to see it to believe it.  With all the transplanted NYers in Miami and the depressed Cheesehead/Favre worshippers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sea of “Jet” green in Dolphin Stadium on Sunday.  The Dolphins may have had a lot of 3-game losses in 2007, it just seems to me that they will lose by much more than that this week.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams: When fully healthy (finally), Donovan McNabb showed what he could do with his strong finish in 2007 (816 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT in final 3). After the game of chicken played between Steven Jackson and the Rams front office, he is back in town with a new deal.  Although Jackson is the Rams best player, it’s possible that his playing time will be limited due to his holdout.  Plus I think he might struggle week 1 as he works off the rust regardless of how much playing time he receives.  On the other hand, Marc Bulger hasn’t impressed me much in the pre-season (or last year) and the Eagles have 3 solid CBs Samuel, Brown and Shephard).  I can see the Eagles, who I believe will make the playoffs in 2008, rough up the Rams, who won’t.

Arizona Carinals (-2.5) over San Francisco 49ers: Quick?  Who had the most 2nd-half passing TDs?  Considering where I’m asking the question, you can safely assume it wasn’t Alex Smith, the former #1 overall draft pick that has been benched in favor of J.T. O’Sullivan.  Kurt Warner was hot down the stretch last year and has been given the starting job he deserves.  Plus, the Cards have one of the best WR duos in the league in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.  No matter how much of a reputation Mike Martz has as the mad scientist OC, he has J.T. O’Sullivan throwing to Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce.  Not the kind of aerial assault that has DBs shaking in their cleats.  The Cards can score (a lot), the Niners can’t.

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are all offense no defense.  The Ravens are all defense no offense.  Not that the veteran alternatives were stellar, but injuries to Kyle Boller and Troy Smith have forced Joe Flacco into the starting QB role in his first ever NFL game.  Several analysts thought he had the most potential in the NFL Draft, but considered Flacco to be more raw than the others (Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, etc.).  The Bengals head to Baltimore limping with Carson Palmer recovering from a broken nose, Chad “Ocho Cinco” (new legal name) playing with a shoulder harness after tearing his labrum and TJ Houshmandzadeh playing with hammy issues. I don’t see the Bengals coming into a hostile environment and putting up a lot of points on the Ravens defense.

Buffalo Bills (-1) over Seattle Seahawks: Last year, the Buffalo Bills started and finished badly but had a 6-2 stretch from weeks 7-14.  That’s when we got a glimpse of their potential.  Despite losing their last 3 of the season, there are playoff expectations in Orchard Park.  Heck, Donte’ Whitner has “guaranteed” it.  I’m not a big fan of unnecessary guarantees, but I do believe the Bills will be better in 2008.  The Bills and their fans will be pumped as they face the Seahawks and their banged up group of WRs.  Since Bobby Engram, Deion Branch, Ben Obomanu are all out, it’s going to be Nate Burleson and Courtney Taylor starting at WR.  And I’m just as (un)impressed with their new running (umm) attack of Maurice Morris and Julius Jones.  Both teams were solid overall against the spread (ATS) in 2007.  But looking at their home-road splits, the Bills were 6-2 ATS at home while the Seahawks were 3-5 ATS.  I expect the Bills to kick off the season with a win.

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