Bill Miller Still In The Basement Over Trailing Twelve Months
Monday, April 20, 2009 6:51 pm
Bill Miller's shareholder letter a year ago was full of excuses...Bill rode a momentum market in the late 90's but was blaming the go-go players for chasing the hot stocks, and expected he would prosper once the worm turned: For investors who are trend followers, or theme driven, or who primarily build portfolios around forecasts, or who employ momentum strategies, price is dispositive. When they do badly, it is because prices moved in a direction different from what they thought. For value investors, price is one thing, and value is another. When prices move against us, it usually means that the gap between price and value is growing, and our future expected rates of return are higher. Bill Miller's Q1 Shareholder Letter, April 2008 Bill's spin was that he was likely to enjoy a burst of outperformance after a dreadful stretch that was legendary in the annals of long-only train wrecks...alas it is one year later and his numbers are still dreadful. Alas, he was down roughly 5.36% today and is down mid-40%'s, and solidly bottom decile against his peers since the letter was written. But he has had a good month....and decent quarter. Is he back? |
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