SellSide Comes to comScore’s Defense

An 11:00 AM conference call today by comScore (SCOR-NASDAQ) with Deutsche Bank's Internet Research Analyst Jeetil is only one example of the Street defending comScore's stock in the wake of a selloff spurred by a competitive threat from Google.

ThinkPanmure is also rallying the troops in a research note today:

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $36 price target on SCOR shares, following a 23% selloff related to Google's entry in the audience measurement market. There are three reasons why we believe Google's new Ad Planner product is unlikely to have a significant impact on comScore: 1) there are already several other "free" media planning alternatives that have yet to impact comScore, 2) Google's measurement methodology is likely to overstate audiences, and 3) a general and significant distrust of Google among media buyers. We envision more than 50% upside in the stock over the next year. ThinkPanmure Research Note

The stock has been on a wild ride since its IPO, but the Google competitive threat is likely to overhang the stock for some time, despite ThinkPanmure's construction posture. However, they are drawing on a historical precedent, pointing out similarities with Omniture (OMTR-NASDAQ):

RBC Cuts Research in Motion Estimates

Will investors shrug off a cut in Research in Motion's (RIMM-NASDAQ) second quarter estimates heading into RIM's first quarter earnings release tonight?

RBC is cutting their Q2 revenue estimates to $2.5-2.6 billion from $2.6-2.7 billion and EPS to $0.91-0.94 from $0.94-0.97 (consensus $2.4 B and $0.90)

RBC has been constructive on the stock, but RIM has been a bit coy regarding launch dates for the Blackberry Bold, due primarily to testing issues as it certifies the new product offering.

RIM's stock peaked as Co-CEO Jim Balsillie announced the launch of the Bold in mid-May, and while the concerns are likely to blow over, valuation concerns might finally begin to cap the stock's upside. And certainly, in the short term, launch dates are paramount.

RIM's second-quarter guidance could offer clues on how early the BlackBerry Bold will ship and how it could affect the company's fortunes, says Romeo Dator, co-portfolio manager of the All American Equity Fund, which has RIM as one of its holdings.

No Time to be a Hero, says Eric Bolling

Are you trading oil in your spare time? The birth of the United States Oil Contact (USO-AMEX) has given us all a chance to embrace our inner Pickens.

But while T. Boone flails around trying to predict the next move, Eric Bolling has tucked his hands in his trading jacket, and is biding his time waiting to go palms out (that would mean sell):

When the flows of money reverse out of the oil play, there will be blood in the street for those still in the energy trade. There will also be opportunities to capitalize by following the flow from oil to the next big trade. I will outline that in my next column. For now, sit tight and watch this thing play out. Oil needs to find its next move but taking a position now is crazy.TSC

Yes, even a seasoned energy trader is backing away from the recent gyrations in oil. The price action this month would seem to be rather random to the casual observer, and we are churning around, albeit with wide intraday swings.

But Bolling is looking for the price to eventually crack, despite Nigerian rebels and Israeli F-15 practice sorties. And before you dismiss the Saudi's, listen to Bolling's take on their recent proposals:

Earth to Barron’s: Amigo Ackman pwned You

Who is the nut here? Barron's, which months ago tried to present a bullish thesis for MBIA, Inc (MBI-NYSE) by scrutinizing its "runoff value", is taking a potshot at Amigo Ackman in a follow up piece this weekend.

While their call on oil is being roundly mocked in the market today,so is their thesis on MBIA, given the stock is down 10%. And while I do not buy into everything out of Ackman's mouth, Barron's looks foolish as we close out the second quarter, and apparently does not know how to take a loss. Sore losers?

At the end of the first quarter, the company trotted out a new metric, to much derision by the bears, boasting an "analytic adjusted book value" for the company of $10 billion, or $42.15 a share. We attach some credence to this number. As MBIA's CEO pointed out in a recent letter, that number assumes a present value of around $2 billion on future claims losses on its insured portfolio of munis, corporate bonds, mortgage securities and more. Recent trading levels in the stock imply losses of up to $14 billion-bearish to the point of nutty.

MBIA's primary antagonist, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management, claimed last week that MBIA was functionally insolvent, according to Portfolio.com. Earth to Bill: MBIA's insurance unit is still rated double-A, according to S&P, just like stalwarts Met Life (MET-NYSE), Allstate (ALL-NYSE) and AIG (AIG-NYSE). Barron's

With the stock trading at its 52-week lows, Barron's readers have a chance to make a stand behind Jonathan Laing's thesis that the "stock's rally will resume".

Perp Walk For Cioffi

Bud Fox was never a Managing Director at Bear, but life imitated art today. Ralph Cioffi did not have high-quality assets, but I sure hope he has a high quality lawyer, and a dog.

June 29, 2007
Bear Stearns told potential investors in a now-stricken hedge fund that it could cope with even higher leverage because it put money into “high quality” assets – many of them hard-to-value structured products based on sub-prime mortgage bonds.

However, Bear also warned investors that taking on higher leverage could increase its volatility and brings with it “an additional risk element” FT

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