Hey!
We used to publish on the homebuilding stocks in the early 1990’s.
Nobody wanted to talk to us...it was a backwater of a sector. Multiples were low...you bought ‘em at a 4 and sold ‘em at a 6 P/E.
If you were lucky.
But covering these stocks in 2007 makes for good copy…
The colorful CEO of luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers, Robert Toll, stepped forward on Dec. 5 with the claim that some housing markets might be stabilizing. His comments came as a slight disconnect from the company’s quarterly news: Profits plunged, customers canceled more orders, and the company took a deep hit on its property holdings…
The change in tone struck several analysts in the Dec. 5 conference call, which came less than a month after the company’s last briefing. “You seemed like a very…I guess broken man last time. And here you are a new man,” Ivy Zelman, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, told Toll Tuesday. “I’m wondering which Kool-Aid you’re drinking because I want some. No one else in the industry is willing to stick their neck out.”
12/07/06
The 10-Q detective in also on Toll’s case...highlighting a few gems filed in the recent proxy:
In its Proxy recently filed with the SEC, Toll Brothers reported that Robert Toll took home approximately $18.9 million in salary and bonus (combination of cash/stock) in 2006, down from $28.6 million in 2005 and $31.7 million in 2004. [These dollars do not include millions more received per annum in (long-term) stock-option grants.]
You might not be in the market for a house or a homebuilding stock....but don’t despair...Bruce Toll sells used cars too…
read all about it at the 10-Q Detective
Just be careful...drinking kool-aid can wreck your house…
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No positions in homebuilding securities mentioned above.
Hold ‘em
Do you love a good game?
The pot continues to build in the stakes for Riverbed Systems (RVBD-NASDAQ). This story offers up excitement in spades...high-profile VC’s, hyper growth end-markets and solid sponsorship.
If this one doesn’t get your juices flowing nothing will…
But it seems the good ship Riverbed has attracted naysayers as well. The rise in the short interest could mean we have stumbled upon the next installment in our Battleground Stox series. Not much of a contest thus far; the bears buttocks have been firmly paddled. No doubt they are skeptical about Riverbed’s valuation, which seems mighty rich to us too.
But shorting a stock purely on valuation is an iffy proposition at best. Hopefully, for the shorts, the bear case includes more than a valuation call. Perhaps they are counting on a follow-on offering to finally throw a little cold water on this red hot stock. We should note that more than 5% of the float changes hands every day...and the ample liquidity should offer opportunities for the shorts to jump ship. Certainly some already have. 12/04/06
Riverbed only been public for a few months...but management knows how to play Wall Street’s game. The first pullback in the stock was met with a press release. A rather pedestrian group of growth investors lead by the boys at Turner tried to run and gun the stock right through
4 - 3 Defense
the opposing defensive formation. Nice try...but these Bears are no push over. We look forward to getting another peek at short interest and an updated shareholder list…
Management beat numbers and raised...as they needed to...but the pending follow-on offering and a downgrade or two today will cap the rally attempt and keep the stock range bound.
We are not in bed with Riverbed. But a pullback and a little consolidation on the chart might allow the stock to gather its strength and assault the highs once again.
At some point a fling might be in order.
Fair warning....our flings usually end badly.
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No positions in securities mentioned above.
Very Vogue
Editors note- Do you know any ladies with attitudes? Gadget Girl is our latest author to strike a pose...she practices what she preaches and will be covering all things wireless.
Speaking of wireless, Cupertino excels at creating buzz, but it is a bit premature to predict that the Canucks have met their Waterloo.
Gigi comes out of industry, not Wall Street, and is more plugged in than all of 230 Park Avenue. She is here to lend a hand as we juggle a few projects...and get this rudderless ship on track. She might not be a stockpicker per se, but will weigh in from time to time on her latest obsessions. Gigi does not own Research in Motion (RIMM-NASDAQ) but has been singing Blackberry’s praises for as long as we have known her. Her next post will put a little more meat on the bone...but most people start with appetizers.
Don’t just stand there lets get to it…
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The competitors are finally starting to leave the building. The launch of the MOT Q that was touted for months was barely a blip on RIMM’s radar.
BlackBerry retained the top spot for PDA devices shipped, growing 10 percent to 3.5 million for the year, but its market share slipped from 21.3 percent in 2005 to just a shade below 20 percent during 2006, Gartner said. (includes only the 8700 and not the Pearl or the 7100)
Palm saw PDA shipments slide by 29 percent to less than 2.8 million devices, its market share plummeting to 11.1 percent from the prior year’s 18.5 percent.
Hewlett-Packard Co.’s shipments also declined in 2006, falling 24.1 percent to 2.3 million devices. Its market share fell by more than a third to 9.7 percent vs. the prior year’s 15.1 percent. Gartner
That said - let’s not forget the Pearl. We were loathe to make the change from our blackberry 7280 because it was a workhorse. But we took the plunge and are so glad we did. After taking the Pearl from the box and plugging it into our laptop it transferred thousands of messages, contacts and calendar entries and set up 3 different email accounts in less than 10 minutes. It also takes little time to get used to the new keyboard. Now we are sorry we didn’t buy it the day it came out.
What a breeze compared with the Samsung Blackjack...we spent the better part of an afternoon enabling one for a friend and it was a total nightmare. Papa don’t preach but I will...Pearl in a landslide.
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. Underthecounter has no positions in securities mentioned above.
What’s good for Apple…
might not be good for General Motors. But it is likely good for Steve Jobs.
By the way is your iPod nearly full?
Today’s most popular iPod holds 1000 songs, and research tells us that the average iPod is nearly full. This means that only 22 out of 1000 songs, or under 3% of the music on the average iPod, is purchased from the iTunes store and protected with a DRM. The remaining 97% of the music is unprotected and playable on any player that can play the open formats. Its hard to believe that just 3% of the music on the average iPod is enough to lock users into buying only iPods in the future. And since 97% of the music on the average iPod was not purchased from the iTunes store, iPod users are clearly not locked into the iTunes store to acquire their music. Steve Jobs
Sarbox Redux
New York City Mayor Bloomberg might be in London talking his book, but Sarbox issues are likely to linger. This brief interview will shed more light on what one long-time SEC commissioner is thinking about a few hot buttons:
Investment News
Brooke Southall
February 5, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO — Paul Atkins, a member of the Securities and Exchange Commission, made a stop here to speak to the Pacific Research Institute, a conservative think tank based in San Francisco. Though the press was barred from the event, he took time last Monday to offer a glimpse of his views and those of the SEC.
Q. Will the SEC ever define an advisory standard to make the hubbub over the broker-dealer exemption rule irrelevant?
A. It’s very much on our minds. Some people probably say we should have done it long ago, but this is the course we charted. We have to be very cognizant of what our authority is and what Congress has instructed us to do, especially in light of the Goldstein decision [by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, overturning the SEC’s hedge fund adviser registration mandate].
Q. Is the turmoil over the backdating of options a big concern?
A. These things go back before Sarbanes-Oxley, so it’s really a thing of the past. Some [transgressions] are really ugly, and in other [instances], boards [of the accused companies] contend no harm, no foul.
Q. Does the Democrats’ control of Congress portend more-cumbersome regulation by the SEC?
A. Congress is Congress, and we are part of the executive branch. So I don’t think it’s dependent on that. Now that can change if Congress really decides to pass laws in our sphere and direct us accordingly, and the SEC will respond. If you look at this past legislative session, the SEC got slammed three times by Congress by wide majorities of both Republicans and Democrats, because we had not done what we should have done over the years.
Read more here
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Paul S. Atkins was appointed by President George W. Bush to be a commissioner of the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 29, 2002. His term expires in 2008.
Paul S. Atkins was appointed by President George W. Bush to be a commissioner of the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 29, 2002. His term expires in 2008.
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.
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