1440 Wall Street

Wall Street Fumbled the Ball, says Citadel’s Griffin

2008-05-13T05:07:00Z

A problem, he says, is youth and inexperience — and that’s coming from a former child prodigy.

“Walk across any of the trading floors — they are full of 29-year-old kids,” he said. “The capital markets of America are controlled by a bunch of right-out-of-business-school young guys who haven’t really seen that much. You have a real lack of wisdom.”

Griffin’s worries over credit default swaps might put traders of those instruments on red alert; he advocates sensible solutions to reining in the risks inherent an a $50 trillion business. Griffin would like to see derivates and swaps traded on exchanges with clearing houses involved in monitoring the exposures. Griffin’s critics will argue he is just talking his book, but something cleary needs to be done.

“It’s not sexy, but it’s simple, it’s cost forward, its straightforward, and it’s what we should have done after 1998,” referring to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, a big hedge fund. He added that it “is a very sad commentary on where we are from a regulatory perspective” that such a move hasn’t happened already.

If enacted, Griffin’s proposals are sure to delay a profit recovery in the banks and brokers. But the more innovative firms are already finding a way to prosper; Griffin’s recent comments on how Goldman Sachs is as much a partner as a competitor might provide a template for the struggling brokers to follow:

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is Citadel’s largest trading partner, is larded with “incredibly talented” people and is emerging as a partner, client and service provider that adds tremendous value to his firm’s trading strategies, Griffin told a Milken conference audience filled with investment banking honchos. “The future of finance,” he added, lies in those rare banks who understand that investment banking is not about accumulating top market share in every category but in making the revenue pie bigger.

“There are a handful of firms interested in being partners,” he said. “That’s not only the future, it’s here today.” Dow Jones

Yes, the future is here today, and Wall Street needs to adapt quickly. And keep an open mind; while Goldman and Citadel are as disliked as much as the New York Yankees in many parts of the country, rooting against them is not necessarily profitable or a good use of your time.

Wall Street faces an uphill climb back, and the firms prospering, like Citadel, deserve to float trial ballons, and help shape the future direction of our capital markets.

And if Griffin is talking his book so be it. To the victors go the spoils.

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A Wish List for Fixing Wall Street
New York Times

April 30th
Citadel’s Ken Griffin Drops IPO Hints At Milken Conference
Dow Jones
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. NP

Vote McCain or Die

2008-05-13T04:01:00Z

With Hillary our of the way we can give some airtime to the candidates.

First Up, McCain courtesy of the Onion. So funny it made me cry.

McCain Vows To Replace Secret Service With His Own Bare Fists

Breaking the First Rule of Fight Club

2008-05-13T00:09:00Z

What is this first rule of Fight Club?

Do not talk about Fight Club. These Silicon Valley geeks did not get that email. Somehow I can’t see the guys at Alley Insider doing this...Techcrunch, maybe.

#1 - The first rule of Fight Club is, you do not talk about Fight Club.

#2 - The second rule of Fight Club is, you DO NOT talk about Fight Club.

#3 - If someone says stop, goes limp, taps out, the fight is over.

#4 - Two guys to a fight.

#5 - One fight at a time.

#6 - No shirts, no shoes.

#7 - Fights will go on as long as they have to.

#8 - If this is your first night at Fight Club, you have to fight.

This reminds me a lot like RIM vs Apple shareholders.

FBN Shuffles the Deck

2008-05-12T19:14:00Z

Can Kevin Magee find a winning hand to play at FBN? A slow start was to be expected, but viewers have been slow to tune in. Not even FBN’s Mane Man Cody WIllard can carry the channel forever.

Magee has his first tweak under his belt, and lord knows it won’t be the last:

Viewers of the Fox Business Network — and it remains unclear how many there are — may notice a number of changes on Monday.

Some anchors, like Alexis Glick, Stuart Varney and Liz Claman, will get better face-time. Some programs will be broken into one-hour segments to make them seem more focused. New programs will be introduced to punch up the hours surrounding the 4 p.m. market close.

“The nice thing about a start-up is that you get to make a lot of tweaks,” said Kevin Magee, an executive vice president at Fox Business Network....The changes will affect almost every daytime hour, eliminating some multihour programs in favor of one-hour formats at pivotal points in the day. The network clearly sees a star in Ms. Glick, a former CNBC host, who will now lead a cast of characters on the 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. program “Money for Breakfast.” She is also the solo host of “Opening Bell,” a 9 a.m. stock market curtain raiser. NYT

FBN needs to figure out what it wants to be when it grows up; turning into the Glick Network is not likely to work. Bringing on Brian Sullivan from Bloomberg and harnessing Minyanville is a step in the right direction, but FBN’s Main Street orientation is apparently not playing in Peoria, or Wall Street. This would seem to be a move away from Main Street and in CNBC’s general direction.

The on-air talent has been mishandled to some extent, and until Magee can find a winning formula, Financial News Network on YouTube will continue to garner higher ratings.

Classic FNN from October 1987

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Fox Business Refines Lineup in Daytime
New York Times
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.

Research in Motion Takes Dead Aim at Apple

2008-05-12T18:19:00Z

“We think the Bold’s specs should appeal to both business and consumer users,” Jim Suva of Citigroup wrote in a note to clients....Analyst Deepak Chopra of National Bank said in a report Monday that while the Bold targets business customers, “we believe consumers will crave it.”

But not even new all-time highs can convince some of RIM’s skeptics. The blogopshere is Apple country, despite the efforts of Crackberry.com, and nonsensical comments like this continue to be published:

RIM will be assaulted by the new Apple 3G iPhone. It already has multimedia capacity and will add 3G. E-mail will work better on the faster network so the iPhone’s appeal to the general business user should go up.

The Blackberry is for e-mail. Making it more feature rich is a way to make it harder to use. For RIMM, that is a big mistake. 24/7WallSt

Speaking of big mistakes, writing a series of negative pieces on RIM has been a big mistake. Although RIM’s valuation can be debated, most of the RIM analysis on the internet is dominated by master debaters.

With RIM’s long rumored touch screen only a matter of time, this battle is certain to heat up. As RIM’s CEO said in wrapping up his comments today:

....the co “had a number of tricks up our sleeves for the rest of the year.”

Tricks or not, RIM shareholders are laughing all the way to the bank.

One-Year RIMM Chart

And some iPhone users are switching...to RIM

My daughter Emily was passed down the iPhone I bought when it first came out. It didn’t work for me so I gave it to her. That phone developed a small crack in the screen last fall but she kept using it. The crack got worse, propagated, and yesterday she dropped it again.

Now it’s shattered, it’s brains have been battered, splattered all over manhattan. Sorry about that, just couldn’t resist a little Stones lyrics fun.

So I asked her if she wanted another iPhone. Surprisingly, the answer was no.She wants the new crimson red Blackberry Curve. A VC

Emily Wilson, RIM fan.
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RIM CO-CEO Interview from 2pm Today

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Research in Motion debuts 3G BlackBerry
MarketWatch

RIM (RIMM) Tries To Keep A Market It Is Losing (AAPL)
24/7 WallSt

BlackBerry Bold Officially Announced!
Crackberry.com

RIM May Take on Apple With New BlackBerry Bold
CNBC

iPhone vs Blackberry - Survey Sample Size of One
A VC
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No Positions

Losing Big: A Winning Wall Street Strategy

2008-05-12T15:33:00Z

It never ceases to amaze me how hedge fund managers who suffer catastrophic losses are able to go out and raise money. But clearly I did not think it through; losing money of course makes them smarter, apparently:

Investors have a range of explanations for opening their wallets for failed managers. Sometimes, managers demonstrate that big losses made them smarter investors, or they offer to waive some of their hefty fees for those who got burned in previous funds. Some managers who had stumbled in the past, such as David Shaw of D.E. Shaw and William Ackman of Pershing Square, restarted their careers and generated big returns.

It can be helpful to have lost loads of money, rather than a smidgen of cash.

“It’s crazy, but the guy who’s down substantially often will have a lot more options versus someone smaller who hasn’t lost much money,” says Neal Berger, who runs Eagle’s View Asset Management, LLC and invests with funds. “Some investors will say ‘lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same spot,’ or, ‘there must be something smart about him that someone gave him the opportunity to lose so much money in the first place."’ WSJ

Investors might buy into failed managers spin jobs, but I am not. Wall Street is one of the few places lighting strikes twice.

Rebounds by Hedge-Fund Stars Prove ‘It’s a Mulligan Industry’
WSJ
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No Positions

Meredith Whitney is Not Buying What Vikram Pandit is Selling

2008-05-12T15:17:00Z

Meredith Whitney clearly got out of the wrong side of the bed today, and her assault of Vikram Pandit continues. Meredith is not buying into any of the “broad themes” Pandit laid out last week, and continues to believe Citigroup’s C:NYSE) profit outlook looks punk over the next 3 to 5 years; the $21 billion in annualized profits they reached a few years back is likely to be the high water point for many years.

``The presentation was glaringly light on actual mechanics, and run-rate earnings figures seemed to cherry pick revenue and credit scenarios from recent years,’’ Whitney wrote in a note today. Pandit ``set no delivery date as far as execution,’’ she wrote.....``The credit outlooks and the loss assumptions for banks across the board are way too low,’’ Whitney said in the interview. ``The outlook for earnings across the board is going to be much worse than people expect.’’ Bloomberg

Whitney continues to stress the challenges Citi faces in upgrading their computer networks, which is a hodgepodge legacy system left over from their acquisition spree. Whitney missed the bottom in Citi and the financials, but it does not appear she is going to get constructive on this stock anytime soon.

Citi’s Pandit Faces `Impossible Feat,’ Whitney Says
Bloomberg
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No Positions

Google To Cut Electricity Usage via SSD Storage

2008-05-12T14:30:00Z

Google’s braintrust have made an admirable effort toward conservation efforts, but with their server farms drawing unfavorable publicity over the electricity consumption, they are continuing to seek ways lower their consumption.

Intel and Marvell will benefit from the push, and while it might not move the needle at Intel, a drawdown in NAND flash chips might provide a floor of sorts in an industry that has been plagued by overcapacity:

Google plans to switch some of its servers over to solid-state drive-based (SSD-based) storage supplied by Intel in order to lower electricity consumption, according to sources at memory makers.

The more power efficient SSDs will be installed at severs at Google’s US headquarters. Intel will supply flash chips and Marvell the corresponding controller ICs, the sources detailed. Shipments are slated for late second quarter, they added.

With the increasing use of SSDs in server applications, a shortage for 16Gb and 32Gb NAND flash chips could become a possibility, the sources commented. DigiTimes

Intel’s Solid state drive (SSD) storage is beginning to get a traction; design wins at Apple AirBook should help. Booting up your computer will soon get a little faster, and the servers farms more efficient, good news for Intel, Micron and Marvell.

Intel gains SSD orders from Google, say sources
DigiTimes
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No Positions

PGA Tour: Badass Sawgrass on Tap

2008-05-09T18:44:00Z

Kevin is fired up over this weekend’s golf action, and try to make time to watch a little. This course seriously rocks, and is prominently featured in EA Sports Tiger Woods series.

As always, check him out at PGA 365, where he can break it all down for Yahoo!’s fantasy golfers, tier by tier:

Dubbed the “5th Major,” the Players Championship should easily be one of everyone’s favorite tournaments. The TPC at Sawgrass is a badass course, and the fact that this is arguably the best field of the year (along with the PGA Championship) makes this weekend one of the best for golf spectators. Even without Tiger Woods, this should still end up being a fantastic tournament. Who’s going to win this thing? I seriously have no idea. This is one of those tournaments that, to me, are just impossible to pick. You can make many cases for as well as against a huge number of top players. In my opinion this really is a crap shoot. I’ll try to make some sense out of my picks. Continue below!

Tier 1 - I don’t know why, but I want to pick Padraig Harrington to win this thing outright. He’s a fantastic putter, a great player...but I just can’t bring myself to choose him. I’m going to pick players who are relatively hot, and that would be Adam Scott. Scott won this tournament in 2004 (Harrington was actually runner-up that year) and knows how to navigate around this course. He has a win from just a few weeks ago and has been playing well lately. If he can pound his drives down the middle this week, I think he’ll have an excellent chance to win or at least score some points. I’m also picking Phil Mickelson this year over Furyk and Singh. Mickelson is the defending champion...his first win only 7 weeks after hiring Butch Harmon as his swing instructor. Couple that along with his close work with short game guru Dave Pelz and I can’t help but believe that when a course is playing fast and difficult, Mickelson is the man. The thing with Mickelson is that he can win even after missing the cut the week before; if he’s on, he’s on. The harder the greens are, the better Mickelson is as a pick...think of how he drove the ball like complete trash in 2006 at Winged Foot but still managed to tee up on 18 with a chance to win. The short game is key here.

Tier 2 - Why, Stewart? Why!?! Why must Stewart Cink torment me so much?? He’s been consistently good...and consistently good at not winning. His game is so close to coming together...he just needs that weekend confidence. I can’t avoid him on the lineup though...he’s been too good of a performer to keep off your roster for the week. And why not Anthony Kim? So what if he finished dead last at this event last year? He’s a completely different player now and has matured a great deal since then, taking his first tour win at last week’s Wachovia. I think he’s the gutsiest player in the field and consider him a great pick. Following up Cink and Kim will be Sean O’Hair and Bart Bryant. Everyone can remember O’Hair’s bold move to go for the pin on 17 last year in a valiant effort to win over Mickelson. Man, that was great. You don’t see that kind of insane risk these days, especially on a hole like 17. Last but not least in this group is Bart Bryant. “Bart Bryant?!” you say? Yes. Bryant will either cash out after 2 rounds or make it to one of the last groups on Sunday. I could be wrong, but if I’m right, I’ll look like a genius.

Tier 3 - I’m starting Jose Maria Olazabal this year over my other pick, Luke Donald. Olazabal has played well here in the past two years and I just like him in general. When the going gets tough (a-la Augusta), Olazabal is not a bad choice. Donald stands out as the only other decent Tier 3 player. He’s been streaky this year, coming as close as 2nd at the Honda Classic while missing almost 50% of the cuts this year on the PGA Tour. Still, it’s hard to overlook his talents, and the point here is to pick the players that will net you the most out of 4 rounds.

Jenna’s Wedding: Bushies Mug 4 Sale

2008-05-09T17:53:00Z

While your wedding invitation to Jenna Bush’s nuptials might have gotten lost in the mail, you can still participate with a button or coffee mug:

It’s not often that the daughter of a sitting President gets married!

Then, there’s the notion to some of us loyal Bushie’s, that the Bush’s are probably the closest family we American’s have to royality… that’s why Western White House Gifts has decided to honor Jenna and Henry’s wedding by creating a few unique souvenirs celebrating their special day in the fashion of a true royal wedding… allbeit, a Western White House Wedding! Western White Hosue Gifts

Skull & Bones might not have approved of the wedding tchotchkes, but they have to be thrilled with Hillary’s current straits

Andyou know they secretly love Obama Girl. BTW,the Original video is now over 8 million views on YouTube.

Let’s see if they Bush wedding video can to that.

Western White House Gifts
Bush Wedding Mementoes

Research in Motion vs. Apple: Game On

2008-05-09T16:45:01Z

With regards to software, we believe the company is working diligently to deliver (1) robust HTML support for email and (2) improved web browsing capabilities. We hope to get an update on the progress being made in these key areas. With regards to applications, we expect management to highlight the company’s growing suite of enterprise (recent SAP partnership) and consumer applications. We believe the company’s opening of R&D centers in Dallas and Germany are at least partially intended to attract new software talent for application development.

We hope management will provide an update regarding the network outages that occurred sporadically during the last several quarters and more specifically what measures have been/are being taken to avoid future outages.

Looking at RIMM shares, we would note that in recent years the stock has performed well coming out of the CMD meeting. With the expected introduction of the 3G 9000 device and the recent (pending) launch of the Curve at Verizon (Sprint), sentiment surrounding RIMM shares should be positive. The stock has appreciated 50% off of its February lows and at current levels the shares trade at 34x the F09 (C08) consensus EPS estimate of $3.81. This compares to expected top and bottom-line growth of 69% (per consensus), thus implying a PEG ratio of 0.5x. Looking forward, we would note that the pending introduction of the 3G iPhone in June could cause volatility in RIMM shares.

And what about the Blackbery 9000?

We do expect the company to announce its new, much anticipated 3G enabled device dubbed the Blackberry 9000. Our belief is based on several of our recent checks in addition to a posting this morning on a credible blog site (The BoyGeniusReport). Management is also likely to talk broadly about product roadmap with regards to potential future form-factors and features (touch screen, 3G, etc.)

My favorite Canucks at Crackberry.com, who I turned to when I extolled the Blackberry Pearl, are back with a sneak peek at the 9000.

Will it pack a GIG of onboard memory?:

NOW, I’m going to go out on a limb here and make an educated guess… When the BlackBerry 9000 gets announced on Monday (WES Kick Off!) I am almost certain it will be packing a GIG of onboard memory. The 9000 I bought off eBay might not have that, but with such a focus being placed on Docs / Games / Downloads / Media on the 9000, I cannot for the life of me believe RIM would release it with anything less than that. Unless they ship each device with a microSD card (which I can’t see them doing), there’s just too much going on here to sell the device without ample onboard storage space. I hope I’m right. And I guess we’ll find out soon. Crackberry.com

Their video of the 9000 is racking up views on youtube, just be careful about chasing the stock going into the meetings. I am beginning to have valuation jitters over the stock, although as Avian notes it continues to trade at a discount to its growth rate.

Scarier still are the Apple fanboys who pledge undying allegiance to the iPhone and Apple. Of course, if you size the market there is probably room for the two to co-exist, but some people seem bent on world domination.

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Avian Securities
Homepage

BlackBerry 9000 Review - eBay Purchased Device Emerges!!
Crackberry.com

BlackBerry 9000 Smartphone Review - New Eye Candy!
Crackberry.com

Game On
1440 Wall Street

iPhone vs. BlackBerry: Round 2
Changewave Research
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No position.

Pandit ‘s Plan Takes Shape

2008-05-09T05:15:00Z

Originally Published in the News May 9, 2008 1:15 PM
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Vikram Pandit has barely had time to settle into his new job and roll up his sleeves, yet his detractors are legion. The initial reaction to his strategic plans laid our earlier today is not great, at least if you look at how the stock is trading.

Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit plans to get rid of about $400 billion of assets over the next three years as he starts to whittle away at the company built by Sanford ``Sandy’’ Weill.

When he’s done, Citigroup may cease to be the biggest U.S. bank, a title the firm has held for a decade.

``There will be more’’ divestitures, Pandit, 51, told shareholders at a meeting today at the bank’s New York headquarters. The company, which lost $5.1 billion in the first quarter, has recorded more than $40 billion of credit losses and writedowns since the subprime mortgage market collapsed last year. Bloomberg

The recent respite for financial stocks ended rudely this week, although the selloff in individual names seems worse than in the XLF ETF

Pandit did not knock the lights out and his Old Lane hedge fund, but his current task, and challenges, are far different. I will be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but taking a stand on the stock here is another matter. The bounce appears over, and Citi’s stock is more volatile than Meredith Whitney’s mood swings.

Citigroup Plans to Shed About $400 Billion of Assets
Bloomberg
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. No Positions

Canada’s National Sport: Insider Trading

2008-05-08T20:36:00Z

Vancouver has long been a hotbed for shady stock operators, but crooks have long eluded the long arm of the Mounties.

But regulators are stepping up their enforcement activities, and are targeting the once untouchables.

Lawyers:

Securities regulators in the United States and Ontario have launched a major insider trading investigation that centres on 11 Canadian takeovers during the past two years and the U.S.-based law firm that advised companies involved in each of the deals.

According to documents filed in the Ontario Superior Court, the Ontario Securities Commission is investigating Toronto business consultant Stan Grmovsek, his sister Marian Grmovsek-Gatzos and his brother-in-law Alex Gatzos, alleging they earned a profit of $1.1-million by trading in resource companies shortly before they were engulfed in a frenzied wave of mergers and acquisitions that sent stock prices into orbit.

The deals include Yamana Gold Inc.’s three-way merger with Northern Orion Resources Inc. and Meridian Gold Inc., Goldcorp Inc.’s merger with Glamis Gold Ltd., and Iamgold Corp.’s union with Cambior Inc.

An affidavit filed by OSC investigator Stephen Carpenter states that the regulator’s review of potential sources of confidential deal information “revealed a connection” between Mr. Grmovsek, 39, and an unidentified lawyer with an unnamed law firm that represented a company in each transaction.

It does not take much detective work to figured out who was involved:

Corporate announcements of each of the deals show that only one law firm, Dorsey & Whitney LLP, acted as an adviser during each transaction. Dorsey & Whitney was founded in Minneapolis in 1912 and currently employs 650 lawyers in the United States, Europe and Canada.

The SEC certainly promised over a year ago that it would begin to step up enforcement activities, and this could be an example of the new posture:

The investigation is believed to mark the first time that lawyers have been publicly targeted in a Canadian insider trading probe. Heavy trading ahead of takeover announcements is common in Canada, but the OSC has only won convictions in a small handful of cases, mostly involving corporate officials.

Is sounds like the wild west days of Canada’s securities markets are coming to a close, a few decades too late for many straight shooters in North America.

P.S. Go Red Wings!
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Insider trading probe focuses on U.S. law firm
Globe & Mail
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Update:

The SEC recently signalled that it was troubled by the growing number of lawyers who have recently been targeted in insider trading cases. Linda Chatman Thomsen, the SEC’s director of enforcement, said in a March speech that she found it “depressing” and “inexplicable” that nine U.S. lawyers have been sued by the regulator in the past year for allegedly trading in stocks ahead of significant news.

Iamgold’s Mr. Conway said he regarded lawyers as his most “trusted advisers” because they give counsel over a long period of time on a variety of corporate decisions and transactions.

“There’s that level of trust and confidence that you have with a lawyer that is much higher than you would have with say an investment adviser or an investment banker. That’s the disturbing part about it,” he said.

Insider trading probe targets classmates
Globe and Mail

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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.

Reality Wall Street TV: No Experience Required

2008-05-08T17:07:00Z

Wall Street Warriors featured people scraping and clawing their way through Wall Street’s viper pit, often bootstrapping their way along.

But a new reality show in the UK will take people with no trading experience, set them up with a grubstake, and get out of the way:

Century Films is working on a documentary for the BBC and wants your help.

The production company is looking for 5 people from outside the financial markets to take part in a real-life trading experiment. Participants will be provided with capital by a successful hedge fund entrepreneur and will be given the opportunity, after some training, to trade in the markets. And, in addition to strutting your stuff on a trading floor, you will also get to keep any profit share, as you would in a real-life hedge fund!

So, if you know someone from outside the City who you think might have what it takes to participate in this exciting new series, please let them know about this opportunity.

Interested parties should please contact Sascha or Satnam on 0207 378 6108 or 07851 043 737. Or e-mail a picture of yourself, a contact number and brief background details to:
traders@centuryfilmsltd.com

Please note that Century is not after anyone who has any professional experience of trading.

Of course, this is a genius idea. Sometimes the less you know, the better off your are. Just be sure to keep those guys at Goldman away from the newbies, they will pick their pocket in a heartbeat.

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Ever Wanted To Be A Trader ? Now’s Your Chance
Here is the City
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Century Films create innovative, hard-hitting documentaries and dramas for all the major UK broadcasters, with sales to many international channels.

Our work is distinctive, challenging and inventive - and above all, compelling.

We are renowned for producing award-winning work that gives a fresh angle on difficult subjects.

By applying an innovative approach to our films, we push the boundaries of documentary and drama production. We aim to relate intelligent, true stories that really grip and move audiences.

Century Films
Homepage

George Soros Looks for a Re-Test of Market Lows

2008-05-08T15:45:00Z

George is running a macro fund again, and although his crystal ball is as fuzzy as mine, he thinks we are merely in a bear market rally:

“I think we’ll retest the lows, depending on what measures the authorities take,” Mr. Soros said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal Wednesday. He made similar comments later that day in a discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “We may go beyond” those lows, he said.

And while hedgies might want to debate taking the other side of the trade, they might want to pay attention to comments he made to Judy Woodruff in an interview that is hot off the presses;

Woodruff: Few people know more about hedge funds than you do. You’ve been enormously successful with your own hedge fund. Should hedge funds be more regulated by Washington?

Soros: I think hedge funds should be regulated like everything else. In other words, you have to control leverage—credit obtained for investment purposes—somewhere. Excessive use of leverage is at the bottom of this problem. And there have been hedge funds that have been using leverage excessively and some of those have gone broke. The amount of leverage that people are allowed to use has to be regulated. I think it’s best done through the banks. In other words, the banks’ reserve requirements—the amounts of money they are obliged to hold—should be tailored to the riskiness of their customers. So investment funds that use a lot of leverage ought to be seen as very risky; and therefore they would not get the amount of leverage they seek because the banks wouldn’t give it to them.

Woodruff: New regulation, though: Could that impede the ability of hedge funds to be the big players that they have been in these markets?

Soros: Yes, I think that there has been excessive use of credit and it does have to be limited. So we are now in a period of very rapid deleveraging and I think that in the future we ought not to allow leverage to be used to the extent that it has been in the past.

Soros weighs in on China, the Fed, and future of the housing market in an interview that even the Bulls will find illuminating.
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The Financial Crisis: An Interview with George Soros
The New York Review of Books

The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What It Means
Amazon

Soros: Market Will Retest Its Lows
Real Time Economics
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of 1440 Wall Street. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.