Ed Hyman’s Single Best Idea

There are enough macro-economic blogs and guru’s to keep you parsing data 1440 minutes a day, but none can compare to Ed Hyman, who has claimed top honors in Institutional Investors poll for 28 years in a row, the longest streak in the history of the voting.

I spent a good 12 years straight reading ISI Group’s excellent missives. The only problem with their work is that it becomes the consensus, something that often makes me uncomfortable.

Hyman thinks we are flirting with a recession, but expects the IRS rebate checks and a 2% Fed Funds rate to goose 2nd quarter GDP. Ed expects the drag from housing to leave us with 1% growth into the back half of 2008 and into the first quarter of 2009.

Hyman also expects that financial crisis to “stay as bad”, although housing starts are likely to creep higher while housing values continue to drip lower before finding a bottom. But bears will be disappointed to hear that, according to Hyman, “what is in the papers is in the market” and policy moves will continue to favor the bulls. He thinks the lows are in, along with this strategist and technical analyst Jeff DeGraff, who has had a hot hand.

This edition of Wealthtrack was filmed last week, so far so good, on the panel’s predictions. Ed is joined by Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates and Peter Fisher from Blackrock.

If boring big caps are your thing, FedEx (FDX-NYSE) is Ed’s pick. Get inside his head in the video below.

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