Epic US Open on Tap at Torrey Pines

And on with the picks.

Tiger Woods has a bum knee. It’s his first tournament since The Masters. But knowing all of that, and knowing the skill he has, the time he puts in at his practice sessions, his attitude, mental (and physical!) stamina and the virtually endless highlight reel of incredible shots, would you even be surprised if he managed to come out on top? I sure wouldn’t…and it would only add to his already amazing career. I personally think that he probably won’t win the tournament, even though he has Dominated (notice the capital “D") this course, winning here at total of 6 times. Tiger is the type of player that under-promises and over-delivers in these situations…when you expect him to play shoddy because of an injury, he’ll bounce back and clobber the field. What remains to be seen is if his tender knee will actually HELP him play better. How’s that, you say? Simple. Tiger probably won’t be able to put the pressure on his knee like he normally would, and this in turn leads to an easier, more controlled swing. If Tiger ends up in the rough all week, forget it. If he can control his drives, it then becomes a matter of putting, and I think we all know how good Tiger is with the flatstick.

As the #2 ranked player in the world, it’s only fitting that Mickelson has his share of wins here and that he practically grew up on the course. Phil’s short game control is outstanding, and no matter how fast or difficult you set up a course, he can play anything 100 yards and in as good as any other player on the face of this earth. Flash back to Winged Foot in 2006 and you’ll realize that as terribly, and I mean TERRIBLY, as he drove the ball that week, he still had the lead through 71 holes. With Tiger not at 100% and this course being essentially his home course, this is as good a break as Mickelson is going to get to finally get that first US Open win. Coming in 2nd at 4 different US Opens has get to be getting old for him.

I don’t think any of the Tier 2 players with the exception of Angel Cabrera, Reteif Goosen and Justin Leonard have a reasonable shot here. Angel Cabrera always shows up with a strong game at majors, and as the defending champion I think he’ll have a good showing. Not since Curtis Strange in 1988 and 1989 has someone successfully defended their title at the US Open. Reteif Goosen, a 2-time US Open winner, know what it takes to win at tough Open courses. His putting at Shinnecock Hills in 2004 was insane, making virtually everything on the closing 9 holes. He has been unspectacular this year and I don’t expect much from him, but he’s the kind of guy that can turn it up all of a sudden.

Lastly, Justin Leonard has had an awesome year and is just coming off a win at the St. Jude Classic. He won previously there, but you can’t hide the fact that he has played well all year and deserved at least a win at some point. Leonard is not a long-ball hitter, and this just happens to be the longest US Open course in history, but if he can keep the ball in the fairway and hit those low runners like he usually does, he should be able to score some points.

Tier 3 also presents 3 compelling choices. First there’s Luke Donald, who hasn’t been consistent throughout the year but has the game to compete in majors. Second, there’s Andres Romero, who captured his first PGA Tour win earlier this year and has demonstrated that he has the skill to win a major (the 2007 Open Championship at Carnoustie should ring a bell). And lastly there’s Trevor Immelman, the Masters champion, who has fallen off the face of the earth after his win BUT had a strong showing last week, right before a major nonetheless. These three players represent the best chances to me to score well this week.