Go West Old Man (Rogers)

by StockJockey

Monday, September 01, 2008 - 1:35 am

Poof goes China?

The Olympics were, at times, spectacular, but the hangover could be brutal:

China's tallest skyscraper, the half-kilometre-high World Financial Center (WFC) in Shanghai, has opened its doors, just as the country's property bubble shows every sign of being on the verge of collapse....The WFC offers the world's highest observation deck, complete with a transparent glass floor, the world's loftiest hotel, and some of Shanghai's priciest office space.

However, the formal unveiling, 14 years after the £640m project started, was being talked of as the turning point for China's over-inflated property market.....Minoru Mori, chairman of Mori Building Company, Japan's largest private property developer, was forced to admit that only 45pc of the office space in the WFC had been let and even Morgan Stanley, which is backing the project financially, could cut its leased space from eight floors to four.

The total wealth of China's 10 richest tycoons has declined by more than £15bn in 12 months. Telegraph

If Pinch is still in business a year from now he can send Tom back, and tells us what he sees. A shitstorm of biblical proportions could be hitting the fan.

Is it time for Jimmy Rogers to come home?

Shanghai's World Financial Center may prove to be a white elephant
Telegraph

A Biblical Seven Years
NYT

Warning signs from the centre of the boom
Globe and Mail
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Comments:

who are pinch and tom?

Posted by on 09/01/2008 at 01:11 PM

Pinch Sulzberger, major domo at the Times and Tom Friedman, the franchise.

He wrote the “Biblical Seven Years”

Friedman wrote some influential books worth reading

here is amazon link

http://tinyurl.com/57nqcl

Posted by on 09/01/2008 at 01:35 PM

Yeah, I’m sure you’re right. China was just a fad. Now that it’s market is down 50%, book your loss. It’s safer to be invested in America. Maybe you could buy some Citigroup, it sure looks cheap.

Anybody who has ever studied markets knows they periodically shake out the weakest players. I guess if you just discovered China last year, and got committed in November, you might be better suited to a Time Deposit at your local Thrift. Leave investing to the grownups.

Posted by on 09/03/2008 at 06:07 PM

The FIFO thesis is picking up adherents...and Jimmy has taken quite a drawdown.

When Rogers announced his move to China it provoked soul searching....of course the pollution kept him out of China and in Singapore.

My point was more of a zeitgiest commentary as we come out of the Olympics, it already feels like China passed us, and reminds me of how Americans felt about the time the Hostages were held in Iran.

Lets see if they can keep the economy from disaster, but many got it wrong thinking you could sell everything right before the Olympics.

Trade ended months ago...nasty.

Yeah, you can lose money anywhere. We were sitting on the desk making jokes about China and Ethanol stocks in the spring of 2006.

China Ethanol....(KORN-NASDAQ)

It was just a snarky joke in between shouts of “China” delivered samurai style.

We would trade me long while rolling our eyes.

you could see this trade coming...and going.

Did you get it right?

Posted by on 09/03/2008 at 06:22 PM