Ibbotson Dials It Down, No Longer “Mr. Ten Percent”

Roger Ibbotson was one half of the team to make arguably the most impressive market prediction in history. In 1974, along with fellow U Chicagoan Rex Sinquefeld, Ibbotson forecasted that the DJIA, then in the 800s, would reach 9,218 at the end of 1998 and 10,000 by November 1999. These calls were built on the assumption that long-term stock returns would exceed 10% so it’s no small news in academic and financial circles that Ibbotson--a devotee of efficient market theory and CAPM--has dialed down this growth rate to 9.27%.
The 9% Prediction [Fortune]

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