NFL Week 12

Kevin is bummed it is week 12 already - I am bummed yesterday’s college football games were all a rout. Let’s hope we get closer games and some drama out of the pro’s.

As always, visit him before the kickoff at

Eatdrinkandlsleepfootball.com
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Can you believe it’s already week 12 of the NFL season?  Thanksgiving is only a few days away.  It’s gone fast, but here are picks for this week’s slate of games:

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs: It’s been a tale of 2 seasons for the Bills, who started 5-1.  Since then, they’ve lost 4 straight including Monday Night’s loss to the Browns, which ended on Rian Lindell’s “wide-right” kick. This game is a must-win for the Bills, who trail the AFC East-leading Jets by 2 games and the Patriots and Dolphins by 1 game.  In the past 3 years, the Bills are 12-4 against the spread (ATS) when the line is 3 points or less.  Also, they are 11-3 ATS in the past 3 seasons when facing an opponent with a losing record.

Chicago Bears (-7.5) over St. Louis Rams: The beginning of the Jim Haslett-era made me think these were a different Rams team.  You know...a professional football team.  They certainly look like they couldn’t beat a Pop Warner team let alone an NFL team in the past few weeks.  The Rams have lost their past 3 games by a combined score 32-116.  They will be without Steven Jackson again.  Orlando Pace is out too.  It will be another long day for the Rams.  In other words, business as usual.

Detroit Lions (+7.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Do I think the Lions are better than the Bucs? No.  Not even close.  Would it surprise me if the Bucs beat the Lions 42-3?  No.  But this is my hunch pick of the week.  The Bucs are 5-0 at home and 2-3 on the road straight up.  In fact, their 5 road games were decided by 3 points four times and by 4 points once.  The Bucs are without Earnest Graham for the remainder of the season and I still expect them to win.  But the Lions will keep this one closer than most would expect.

San Diego Chargers (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Heading into the season, the Colts and Chargers were the pre-season picks of many to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  While the Colts have begun to turn their season around and put themselves in position to fight for the wildcard spot at 6-4, this is a must-win game for the 4-6 Chargers.  A loss puts them at 4-7 behind the Broncos, who are likely to beat the Raiders at home and improve to 7-4.  And if they lose to the Colts, winning their remaining 5 games to finish 9-7 is likley not be enough to get the 6th wildcard spot in the AFC.  Bob Sanders is questionable and likely not to play.  The Colts are a much different team defending the run without Sanders.  I expect LT to have a huge game against a Sanders-less Colts defense.

Washington Redskins (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks: I’m always a little nervous picking against home underdogs despite doing that in two other games this week (Bills over Chiefs and Bears over Rams).  But the Washington Redskins at 6-4 are a much better football team than the Seattle Seahawks at 2-8.  If the Seahawks look ahead to their Thanksgiving day matchup on the road in Dallas, this will be over quickly.  But I expect the Redskins to take care of business regardless and bounce back from their back-to-back losses against Pittsburgh and Dallas.  I can’t see the Redskins losing three straight, especially against a horrible Seahawks team.

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