Big pop in December--300 points on the Dow.
Posted by Spider-Man on 12/31/1969 at 03:00 PM
Prediction: The Stock Market Will Go Up or Down
Monday, November 21, 2005 - 10:33 am
We learned early on that we can't pick a stock for the life of us, let alone predict overall market moves. And while the same can be said for many market pundits (sans the self-knowledge), it can still be fun, and sometimes even useful, to debate others' attempts to gaze into the crystal ball. Alan Abelson, ever the curmudgeonly contrarian, thinks the fact that tout le monde is banking on a big end-of-year rally is a sure sign that it won't happen:
The shorts are more than a trifle anxious to protect the sizable gains they've racked up this waning year -- gains that have lifted their portfolios from 14%-15% to as high as 40% -- by closing out their positions at the first hint of a big rally. And, gosh knows, just such hints have been aplenty recently. It's harder these days to find someone who doesn't believe we're in the infancy of a big year-end rally than to find a long-term investor, which means they are really few and far between. The consensus is not always wrong; but when it's so overwhelming, as it is now, the odds against it being right are only modestly shy of astronomic.Waddya think? Is this year going out with a bang or a fizzle? Plethora of Bulls [Barron's]
Comments:
If Black Friday and Black Monday are strong that should provide some decent momentum for the end of the year.
Posted by Anon on 12/31/1969 at 03:00 PM
Spider-Man, Thats not much of rally. 2.5% would be a pretty puny Santa Clause rally, but that would put the Dow at All-time high 11K. We’ve been rallying for the last 4 weeks. All major indices are at 4 year highs. Now its time to see what Santa delivers. Everyone is expecting Ipods and gadgets as stocking stuffers.(I’m sure there’s a Hanukkah metaphor as well) Sadly, i dont think everyone’s expectations will be met. In my opinion, this rally is the best selling opportunity for many quarters to come. Look at Jan 02 for guidance. Ho. Ho. Ho. Grrrrr.
Posted by iac on 12/31/1969 at 03:00 PM
I don’t know, but the if the Fed keeps hiking, the stock market will have no place to go but down.
Posted by Clueless on 12/31/1969 at 03:00 PM
iac, your argument is inane. rising rates helps to curb rising inflationary pressure. furthermore, to say that rising rates will bring the stock market to a halt is apocryphal. Stocks go up when earnings are expected to grow. Stocks will go down when earnings are expected to decline.
with that being said, on the premise that capital expenditures will experience a renaissance in 06, i believe stocks will be up.
Posted by on 12/31/1969 at 03:00 PM
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