Sell Everything: Bloggers Turn Bullish

The drama surrounding the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll continues to entertain us. As we noted last week, perma-bears have dominated the sentiment survey since its inception, fighting the ramp in the stock market through mid-June.

But the latest update to the survey shows an abrupt turnaround. The bears have shed their skin, turning into stock market bulls nearly overnight. Indeed, the survey now indicates record levels of optimism.

What gives?

June 18th Blogger Sentiment Poll

This week’s Poll is a new Ticker Sense record!  The Blogger Sentiment Poll has never been this bullish.

Perhaps the participants have tweaked their algorithms. Or turned the Fed model on its head. Maybe momentum measures have gained an upper hand?

One blogger is not buying it. Stockbee is calling the entire exercise into question. Did the bloggers flip-flop because of peer-pressure or embarrassment?

The “prominent bloggers “ have confirmed that they are the dumb money. A 24 point jump in sentiment in one week, after a some criticism of their chronic bearishness, just shows dumbness.

I am predicting this poll would close down, to avoid further embarrassment to these bloggers.Many of them will silently withdraw to avoid public display of their dumbness.

Thems fightin words. Stockbee has a methodolgy...and thinks many market participants do not:

What has changed in last week that 50% of the participants of the blogger sentiment poll has changed bullish. This market move is pretty old by normal market standards. People who miss out a move and trader with no methodology, at some stage ( near the top or bottom), just cannot endure the pain of being wrong, they turn bullish or bearish very late in a rally. That is classic human psychology at work. Amateurs chose exactly the wrong time to be bullish or bearish, that is what creates profit opportunities for skilled speculators.

Being overly pragmatic is not always wise when you work within overly political Wall Street organizations. But bloggers call it as they see it...and anything goes.

Stockbee has made his case. To be fair, Ticker Sense is under new management. The participants will not always be on the money, but perhaps some sort of enhancement to the polling methodology could enhance its usefulness. Many pundits would like to see it soldier on.

And before you write off all bloggers as charlatans, go watch this video of uber-blogger Barry Ritholtz explaining how he extracts value-add commentary from the web.

June 18th Blogger Sentiment Poll
Ticker Sense

Blogger Sentiment Poll Signals Top
Stockbee
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