NFL Week 11
Do you remember Jimmy the Greek?
He was a hack compared to Kevin, who was on fire again last week. Fade him at you own risk!
Check out his site, or else.....Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com
Week 10 was a good week: 4-1 against the spread (ATS) to improve to 32-17-1 on the season. I’m feeling good about week 11 picks as well. Here they are:
Arizona Cardinals -3 over Seahawks: A lot has been made of the Cardinals’ health on offense, especially the passing game. Hasselbeck, who will start in this game, has played only 4 games and what Seahawks WR hasn’t been hurt this season? But the bigger problem that directly relates to this game is the Seahawks inability to stop the pass. The Seahawks are ranked 31st in the NFL in passing ypg (252.2). They have given up 14 passing TDs and only intercepted 4 passes. Kurt Warner, a legitimate MVP candidate, has avoided mistakes and the Cardinals have arguably the best WR tandem (and trio) in the NFL with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (and Steve Breaston).
Philadelphia Eagles -9 over Bengals: The Cincinnati Bengals are on their longest (and only) winning streak of the year - 1 game. The Bungles have a real shot at beating their own franchise record for ineptitude when they won 2 games in 2002. I expect Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb and crew to light up the Bengals defense, which has given up nearly twice as many points as their offense has scored. Here are some more numbers that support the Eagles: 5-1 against the spread (ATS) as favorite of 3.5-9.5 points this year, 14-2 ATS off a division game in past 3 years and 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival in past 3 years.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 over Titans: Call me crazy (I’ve definitely been called worse) for picking against the Titans, who are a perfect 9-0 on the season. Albert Haynesworth is as good as it gets on the D-Line. The Titans can run the ball with Thunder (LenDale White) and Lightning (Chris Johnson). And when a defense forces them to pass (a la the Bears last week), they showed they can pass the ball with Kerry Collins, who is 14th all-time in passing yards. However, the Jags were expected to challenge the Colts for the division - not the Titans. Jack Del Rio has used Mike Peterson as an example to get the team to focus on the details. The team looked reinvigorated against the Lions last week. With a sense of urgency, I expect the Jags to win this one outright. Worst-case scenario, they should keep it close and give you a shot to cover.
New York Giants -7 over Ravens: The NY Giants Kareem McKenzie was busted for DUI on Thursday, but will start Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens have one of the toughest defenses (especially their front seven) in the league. In fact, the Ravens have the #1-rated rushing defense in the NFL allowing only 65.4 rushing ypg and 1 TD in 9 games. On the other hand, the Giants lead the NFL in rushing offense (168.9 ypg) and have scored 12 rushing TDs. These 2 teams are 1-2 in time of possession and both teams will look to control the clock. The Ravens aren’t as tough on the road as they are at home. Since 2005, they are 20-8 at home and 10-19 on the road. Home-field advantage and a better passing game gives the edge to the Giants.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Rams: Jim Haslett started his “interim” Rams coaching career strong winning his first 2 games against tough NFC East opponents. But he had the versatile Steven Jackson both of those weeks. Since then Jackson has missed 2 of 3 games and only had 7 carries in the game he did play. They have lost by a combined 81-16 in their previous 2 games. Steven Jackson has been ruled out against the Niners so I expect a similar outcome for the Rams. So, we’ll have to wait at least a week before Mike Singletary moons his players (again) when the Niners host Da Bears.
NFL Week 10
Kevin’s picks are far ahead of the pro handicappers this year, which might take his mind of the day job, working for a European bank with a single digit stock. Actually it has been trading with a ten-handle, and I am long that POS again. But forget about stocks for the moment, and check out his wisdom at Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com
A mid-season update was promised at the end of Q1. Through week 9, I am 28-16-1 (63.6%) against the spread (ATS). Let’s say I worked for Sportsline, I would have outperformed all of their 6 “experts” (their word not mine). Their best is a solid 55.8% ATS on the season.
Here are my week 10 picks:
San Diego Chargers -15.5 over Chiefs: The Chargers are arguably the biggest disappointment of the 2008 season. At 3-5, they trail the Denver Broncos by 1 1/2 games in the AFC West. Considering they play the Steelers, the Colts and the Falcons in the weeks ahead, beating the Chiefs is a must. The spread is huge, but don’t be fooled. There were 5 games decided by more than 15 1/2 points in week 9 alone. The Chargers will look like the real contenders that many thought they were in the pre-season and blow out the Chiefs this week. The question (to which I do not have the answer...yet) is will they look like a real contender when they face a quality opponent in the Steelers next week.
Carolina Panthers -9.5 over Raiders: 16-2. That’s NOT a score prediction. That is how many players are on the Raiders injury report vs the Panthers’ report. Not only are the Raiders bad, but they are banged up. And they just released their $70+ million CB, whether or not he’s the “flashiest, burnt-up corner in the history of the game” like Warren Sapp says. This dysfunctional team does one thing well - lose. They won’t disappoint this week either.
New York Jets -9 over Rams: It’s going to be a rough week for professional (umm...I use that term loosely) football for the Missouri-based teams. (The good news is the Mizzou Tigers should beat Kansas State.) Kenneth Darby is going to start at RB for the Rams with Steven Jackson out. Kenneth Darby was on the Falcons practice squad just 3 weeks ago. Now he faces All-World (not a reference to his 349 pounds) run-stopper Kris Jenkins and the fourth-best rush defense (76 ypg) in the NFL. On the flip side, the Rams rush defense is the 4th-worst in the league (155.5 ypg).
Tennessee Titans -3 over Bears: The NFL is a league where the “on any given Sunday” principle usually applies. That doesn’t bode well for a team remaining unbeaten this far into the season. I usually love taking a home underdog. So I should take the Bears, right? Like Lee Corso says, “not so fast, my friend.” With the Bears sending out Rex Grossman, I have no confidence in the Bears. In fact, the Tennessee Titans’ defense leads the NFL in scoring (12.9 ppg) and interceptions (13). Considering Grossman’s affinity for not scoring points and for making mistakes, this seems like a match made in Heaven.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 over Lions: 4 straight blowouts. Then 4 straight single-digit losses. We’re seeing improvement in Motown, right? And last week the Jaguars lost to the then-winless Cincinnati Bengals. But in comes new Lions QB Daunte Culpepper, who will get the start Sunday. After head coach Jack Del Rio and captain Mike Peterson went at it this week, I would expect the Jaguars to come out with a renewed vigor. They are banged up on the O/D lines, but they are playing the Lions after all. The Lions have the 2nd-worst rushing defense (161.8 ypg) and the 2nd-worst rushing offense (72.0 ypg) in the NFL.
Enjoy the games (even the Lions and Raiders games, which will be blacked out in local markets) this week!
NFL Week 9
Kevin has managed to keep it going.... he was 3-2 last week and his overall record through 8 weeks is 26-13-1 (66.7%) against the spread (ATS). Here are his week 9 picks, don’t forget to go to Eatdrinksleepfootball.com
And if you are playing fantasy be sure to check out his cheat sheet at TheTipDrill to help set your starting lineup. There is even a nice NCAA page...Enjoy the games this weekend!
Packers +4.5 over Titans: The Tennessee Titans are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL and they are good. They are better than I thought they would be before the season started. But in a league with parity ("any given Sunday"), they are due to lose. It’s tough to remain perfect. The Packers’ rush defense has surprised me - 141.9 yards/game. However, they’ve allowed only 73 yards last week and 64 yards the week before. While they won’t hold the Titans to that few, the Titans won’t run all over the Packers the way they have running over opponents (145.0 ypg) either. In the past 3 years, the Packers are 14-5 against the spread (ATS) on the road.
Cowboys +9 over Giants: Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants weren’t the pre-season NFC consensus choice. The Cowboys were. Now heading into their week 9 matchup, the Cowboys are 9-point underdogs. All stats point to the Giants covering - the Giants are 10-4 ATS vs division opponents and 22-9 ATS vs conference opponents in past 3 years. The Cowboys on the other hand are 4-10 ATS vs division opponents in the same span. However, I feel 9 points is an over-correction and this game (like most NFC East division battles) will be closer than the Vegas oddsmakers believe. Take the Cowboys and the points.
Bills -5.5 over Jets: It’s a good week to be a Buffalo Bills DB. After only picking off 4 passes in 7 games, the gunslingin’ Brett Favre rides into town. Not only is he tied for the league-lead in INTs with the 49ers benched QB J.T. O’Sullivan, he’s thrown 8 of his 11 INTs in the past 3 weeks against the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs. This is a huge game for the Bills, who are tied for first with the Pats, and I expect the crowd will be rowdy in support of the league’s only “real NY” team. The Bills are solid against the run and they normally play mistake-free. Turnovers and the crowd will be more than a TD-difference in this game.
Browns -1.5 over Ravens: The Cleveland Browns came into the season with over-hyped expectations. Some predicted they would overtake the Steelers in the AFC North. Well, after their horrible 0-3 start, the Browns are playing good football. They are 3-1 in their last 4 games - only loss was on the road to the Redskins by 3 points. The Ravens have the best rushing defense in the league and a solid rushing offense. But Chris McAllister is out and the Browns’ passing attack is looking better. The Ravens also are a much better home (3-1) than road (1-2) team. Take the Browns at home here.
Eagles -7 over Seahawks: The Eagles are putting up 100 yards more of offense than the Seahawks this year. The Seahawks are still banged up - no Matt Hasselbeck, but the Eagles are becoming healthier on offense - second straight week with Brian Westbrook back in the lineup. In fact, the Seahawks are 31st in the league in total offense and 32nd (of 32) in passing offense. It’s going to be a long day for Seneca Wallace as the Eagles apply pressure all day. It will seem like the Eagles defense has more than 11 defenders on the field. This one could be a laugher.
If you play fantasy football, be sure to check out my weekly average rankings by position at TheTipDrill.com to help set your starting lineup. Enjoy the games this weekend!
NFL Week 8
Kevin has cooled off after a hot start but is now 23-11-1 against the spread (ATS) this season after going 2-3 last weekend.
But he is more confident with his picks in week 8 and here they are.
As always check out his site Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (over Oakland Raiders): Since 2006, the Baltimore Ravens are 13-6 at home and the Oakland Raiders are 3-16 on the road. Moreover, when an Eastern timezone team hosts a Pacific timezone team for a 1 p.m. game, they are 10-0 straight-up this season. The Raiders/Ravens game has a 1 p.m. kickoff. The Raiders offense is one-dimensional. Although they run the ball well, the Ravens stop the run even better. The Ravens are allowing the league’s lowest average of only 67.2 rushing yards/game. I expect the Ravens defense to frustrate the Raiders offense and cause several turnovers.
Buffalo Bills -1.5 (over Miami Dolphins): When playing an opponent with a losing record, the Buffalo Bills are 11-1 ATS. Also, they are 12-3 ATS in games that have spreads of 3 points or less. So far, this season the only game the Bills lost is when JP Losman came in after Trent Edwards was knocked out of the game in Arizona. On the season, Edwards is 4th in the league with a QB Rating of 98.8 and has only thrown 2 INTs in 152 pass attempts. The Bills don’t turn the ball over and play solid defense. Take the Bills and gave the points.
Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (over Tampa Bay Buccaneers): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most dominant team in the NFL according to the EDSFootball.com Domination Index when strength of schedule is included. But the Bucs are 1-2 on the road losing to 2 offensive teams with weak defenses (Saints/Broncos). While Tony Romo is out, the Cowboys offense still features Marion Barber, Jason Witten, Terrell Owens and a massive O-Line. Even though the Bucs are the only team in the NFL to not allow a rushing TD in 2008, the Cowboys need to establish a ground attack early. On the defensive side of the ball, Wade Phillips will assume play-calling responsibilities and the Cowboys will get back to basics. With their backs against the wall, I expect the Cowboys to play better, more-focused football at home vs the Bucs.
Washington Redskins -7.5 (over Detroit Lions): The Detroit Lions are by far the worst team (or least dominant according to my weekly Domination Index) in the NFL. In the same index, the Washington Redskins are 2nd overall. The Detroit Lions have the 2nd worst rush defense (167.5 yards allowed per game) and the 2nd-worst pass defense (251.2 yards allowed per game). That kind of consistency has helped them become the league’s worst overall defense allowing 418.7 yards/game. Also, nobody allows more points per game than the Lions (31.2 ppg). The Redskins should score and score often on the Lions Swiss-cheese defense.
Atlanta Falcons +9 (over Philadelphia Eagles): The Philadelphia Eagles will certainly blitz rookie QB Matt Ryan often. And the Eagles have a healthy Brian Westbrook and Kevin Curtis back in the lineup. While I think the Eagles will win this game, I think the Falcons keep the game closer than Vegas expects. Matt Ryan has only thrown an INT for every 53 pass attempts, which is impressive as a rookie starter. Also, Michael Turner has run effectively averaging nearly 100 yards/game (597 yards in 6 games). Roddy White has continued his progression into the upper-echelon of receivers with 453 receiving yards in the past 4 games. Take the Falcons and the points.
Enjoy the games this weekend!
NFL Week 7
I had given up on Kevin getting his picks in this week, given the stock of his employer imploded last week.
But an emergency bailout by European knuckheads have saved the day...and I get a good laugh given I sold the stock 270% higher.
Go check his site out..it beats reading the Wall Street Journal in an effort to pick a winning long.
Baltimore Ravens +3 (over Miami Dolphins): The Miami Dolphins are 3 seconds away from putting together a 3-game winning streak. Ronnie Brown has scored in the past 4 games and has 7 rushing TDs during that span. But now the ‘Fins play the stingy Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (66.2 ypg). The Ravens have lost their last 3 games but to top AFC teams (Steelers, Titans and Colts). With the exception of last week’s blowout, the Ravens have played 4 solid games: 2 wins and 2 3-point losses to Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Although I expect the Ravens to win this game straight-up, I think the worst-case scenario is they keep it close and give the Ravens a chance to cover.
New York Jets -3 (over Oakland Raiders): The New York Jets are a good not great football team, but Brett Favre and the offense are starting to gel. Favre turned the ball over twice last week, but completed his highest percentage of passes last week (over 75%). He has 10 passing TDs in the past 3 weeks. The Oakland Raiders are a franchise in disarray (although disarray might be too weak of a word). In their last 11 games with spreads of 3 points or less, the Raiders are 2-9 against the spread (ATS). More specifically, they are 3-12 ATS as home underdogs when receiving 3 points or less since 1992. And in their last 18 home games, they are 5-13 ATS.
New England Patriots -3 (over Denver Broncos): In sticking with my “AFC East 3-point favorite”, are you ready for some (Monday Night) football? The Broncos are terrible. When I say terrible, I mean against the spread. On the season, they are 1-5 ATS. In the last 3 years, they are 11-27 ATS. The Patriots aren’t as bad as we saw last week in San Diego. I think if the Pats weren’t coming off such a lopsided loss, the spread would probably be closer to 7 points. I can’t see Belichick not having this team prepared to bounce back. Take the Pats and give the points.
Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 (over Pittsburgh Steelers): Make no mistake about it. The Bengals are the Bungles again and are not going to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. However, divisional rivalry games very seldomly should have the road team being a (near) double-digit point favorite over the home team. And the Steelers will likely be playing without Fast Willie Parker. The Steelers are 6-8 ATS vs division opponents in the past 3 seasons.
Dallas Cowboys -7 (over St. Louis Rams): Whether or not Tony Romo plays, the Cowboys shouldn’t need him Sunday. Although the Rams are coming off a surprising 2-point upset over the Washington Redskins, one game doesn’t make a trend. The Rams were the worst team in the NFL for the first 5 weeks of the season. The Cowboys have struggled a little lately, but there is no denying that are a talented bunch. The Rams are 3-10 ATS over the past 3 seasons when facing an opponent with a winning record. During that span, the Rams are also 6-12 ATS at home and 9-16 ATS as an underdog. All signs point to Big D winning big in St. Louis.
NFL Week 6
Oops a little late getting these up..I am trying to stay away from my computer given the reddish glow it emits day after day…
Kevin has been pretty hot...lets see if he can keep it going.
As always, visit him at Eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com
Last week, I was 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) to maintain my 75% winning (or covering) percentage on the season with an overall record of 18-6-1. If only I invested my money in my picks instead of…
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 over Denver Broncos: I expect the Jaguars to re-establish their running game this week against a defense that struggles to stop the run. The Broncos average 415 ypg of offense, ranking them second in the NFL. Although Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are the main cogs of the Broncos offense, they will be missing 2 key components (Tony Scheffler and Selvin Young) this week. This game will be close and the trends favor the Jags. The Jags are 12-5 ATS as underdogs in the past 3 years while the Broncos are 5-14 ATS at home in the past 3 years and 11-26 ATS overall.
Minnesota Vikings -13 over Detroit Lions: Although the Vikings are only 1 game out of first in the NFC North, they are not playing like the Super Bowl contender I thought they’d be. While we’re on the topic of disappointment, Jon Kitna mentioned he would be disappointed if the Lions didn’t win 10 games this year. As the least dominant team according to the latest EDSFootball.com Domination Index, the Lions look unlikely to win even 1 game despite Roy Williams saying the Lions have a “realistic chance” of making the playoffs. Did Webster’s change the definition of “realistic chance” without telling me? The Lions are 3-10 ATS vs division opponents and 4-14 in road games over the past 3 years. And they have virtually 0% chance of stopping Adrian Peterson, who will live up his “All Day” nickname.
Indianapolis Colts -4 over Baltimore Ravens: The Indianapolis Colts, who I picked to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, have started the Lucas Oil Stadium era 0-2. Will they really start 0-3 at home? Granted, they won (and covered) based partly on luck vs Houston (see: Super Man Sage Rosenfels impression). And without Bob Sanders (again), the Colts are struggling to stop the run (again), which is what the Ravens one-dimensional offense does well. That being said, it’s sometimes luck (like last week) that kickstarts an offense that is as potent as the Colts offense. If the Colts can score early, the Ravens and their rookie QB Joe Flacco will struggle to play catch up. In the past 3 seasons, the Ravens are 5-12 ATS on the road while the Colts are 12-9 ATS at home.
Houston Texans -3 over Miami Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins have put together a winning streak that has doubled all of their wins (or should I say win since it was singular) in 2007. But are they good enough to go 3-2? I think Parcells and Sparano will change the culture and attitude in Miami. But they are still a year or two away. With the exception of the last 4 minutes of last week’s colossal collapse, the Houston Texans played great football last week. The Houston Texans have only lost to quality opponents: Steelers, Titans, Jaguars and Colts. The Texans are much better than their 0-4 record indicates and they begin a 3-game stretch against weak opponents (Miami, Detroit and Cincinnati).
New Orleans Saints -7 over Oakland Raiders: Sometimes change is good. The Raiders’ owner Al Davis fired head coach Lane Kiffin and replaced him with the relatively unknown Tom Cable. However, Lane Kiffin wasn’t the Raiders problem; Al Davis was (and still is). But it’s tough to fire the owner. The New Orleans Saints lead the NFL in passing yards/game and they might have their best WR (Marques Colston) back this week. I expect the Saints to score early and take a big league, which hurts the one-dimensional Raiders offense. The Raiders will be forced to play in catch-up mode and this game will be over by halftime.
NFL Week 5
Kevin has cooled off, but he is ahead of the pack. Lets see if he can keep it going-SJ
Picking games against the spread (ATS) is like playing golf. While you want to score better than the rest of your foursome, it’s more important to improve your own game. Well, after my first under-.500 week of the season (2-3 last week), I thought I’d do a search and see how the rest of my “foursome” is doing through the first quarter of the season.
Through week 4, I’m 15-5 (75%). At CBS Sportsline, the best of their 6 contributors is 60% on the year. At USA Today, the best of their 8 contributors is 66.7%. And compared to ESPN’s The Sports Guy (Bill Simmons) it’s not even close. Simmons is 23-23-1 (50%) on the season.
After week 8, I’ll provide a 2nd-quarter update, but here are my week 5 picks:
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Houston Texans: The good news is the Texans schedule gets easier. The bad news is it starts next week when they play Miami, Detroit and Cincinnati. This week, however, they play the Indianapolis Colts, who have won 11 of the past 12 games head-to-head vs Houston. Peyton Manning is 24th in the NFL in QB Rating and has thrown more INTs than TDs. Although the Texans’ strength is their pass rush, the Colts should have Jeff Saturday and Tony Ugoh back on the line. Also, Manning will have one of his favorite targets back in Dallas Clark. It’s hard to envision the Colts starting 2008 with a 1-3 record and the Colts offense to continue struggling.
Baltimore Ravens (+3) over Tennessee Titans: These two teams have stingy defenses. The Titans are giving up the fewest points (11.5 ppg) and the Ravens are giving up the fewest yards (186.7 ypg) so far this season. And both teams are in the top quarter of the league in offensive rushing ypg. While the Ravens have been good only 1 of the 3 past seasons, the Ravens have been tough to beat at home. Even in their 2 down years (2005 and 2007), the Ravens were 10-6 at home and 1-15 on the road. I don’t see the Titans coming to M&T and pushing around the Ravens in their house. Take the Ravens and the points.
San Diego Chargers (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins: In the Dolphins upset over the Patriots, Ronnie Brown ran the ball while Joey Porter ran his mouth. Last week LaDainian Tomlinson had his first 100-yard rushing game of the year, but it still feels like he has yet to get going. But the Chargers still lead the NFL in scoring (34.5 ppg) as Philip Rivers is 2nd in the NFL in QB Rating and TD passes. Barring another 5-TD performance by Brown, I see the Chargers easily winning this one by a TD. Also, the Dolphins are 4-12 against the spread (ATS) in last 16 home games.
New York Giants (-7) over Seattle Seahawks: The New York Giants are #1 in the EDSFootball.com Domination Index through week 4. Seattle has really struggled so far this season without healthy WRs. Bobby Engram and Deion Branch return for Seattle this week, but will it be enough? Perhaps confusing to the Seahawks, who couldn’t keep a WR healthy, the Giants have suspended Plaxico Burress for this week’s game. Here’s an interesting stat: the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in last 7 October games and the Giants are 7-1 ATS in October games. To make matters worse, the Seahawks typically struggle after bye weeks. They are 5-15 ATS after a bye since 1992.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) over New Orleans Saints: These teams have different strengths. Minnesota can run the ball well and New Orleans can pass the ball well. The Vikings get their starting LT Bryant McKinnie back after he served a 4-game suspension. The New Orleans Saints continue to be plagued by injuries on both sides of the ball and the latest is the potential loss of DT Sedrick Ellis, their first-round pick, who left practice today to get his knee examined. It will already be difficult to stop AP with Ellis. Without him, it will be nearly impossible. Take the Vikings and the points.
Enjoy the games!
